Table 1.

Descriptions and values of parameters used in the SIR model.

	Parameters	Symbol	Values	Description
1	Contact rate	β	13.4	The U.S. contact rate (at baseline) might be as low as Germany’s (7.95) or as high as Italy’s (19.77) but is unlikely to be much different. In this study we have utilized with NPI(4) and without NPI(13.4)
2	Removal rate	γ		Recoveries per person per day
3	Basic Reproduction number	R0		The Reproduction Number is the product of Contact Rate X Transmissibility X Duration of Infection. Thus it can be changed by changing any of those factors.
4	Contacts per infection	β/γ	2%	By comparison, the intrinsic transmissibility of 2009 influenza was estimated at 1.57% (SD 0.41).
5	Duration of infectiousness	d	10	Contact tracing data from 10 early cases in China showed the mean serial interval (time between successive cases) was 7.5 days with a SD of 3.4 days. A more recent estimate among 468 cases was 3.96 days with a 4.75 day SD.
6	% Needing hospitalization		13.8%	Severity of illness with COVID-19 is positively associated with age and the proportion of the population over 65 is 11.9% in China vs 15.8% in the U.S.
7	% Needing ICU care		4.7%
8	Mortality rate		Punjab (2.31%), Sindh (1.62%), KPK (3.57%) and Islamabad (0.99%)	As of 06/30/20, the average daily mortality rate is adopted according to number COVID-19 cases and total deaths in Punjab (2.31%), Sindh (1.62%), KPK (3.57%) and Islamabad (0.99%).