Table 3.
Predicted median (95% prediction interval) prevalence (%) of African swine fever virus infectious pigs at 23 days post‐introduction to a pig herd and number of dead infected pigs in the preceding week based on a stochastic SEIR epidemic model
| Scenario | Infection prevalence (%) at 23 dpi | No. dead infected pigs | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Herd size | Herd size | |||||
| 50 | 200 | 1,000 | 50 | 200 | 1,000 | |
| 1. Malta 1978 | 16 (0, 37) | 47 (26, 68) | 65 (51, 69) | 5 (0, 10) | 27 (17, 38) | 106 (57, 143) |
| 2. The Netherlands 1986 | 49 (0, 67) | 25 (0, 51) | 5 (0, 13) | 7 (0, 15) | 14 (0, 32) | 16 (0, 38) |
| 3. Georgia 2007, low | 33 (0, 71) | 10 (1, 25) | 2 (0.3, 6) | 6 (0, 17) | 7 (0, 18) | 7 (0, 21) |
| 4. Georgia 2007, medium | 50 (19, 72) | 18 (8, 29) | 4 (1, 7) | 9 (3, 17) | 11 (4, 19) | 12 (3, 21) |
| 5 Georgia 2007, high | 67 (45, 88) | 29 (12, 46) | 7 (3, 12) | 10 (5, 17) | 12 (5, 21) | 11 (5, 20) |