Table 6.
Predicted median (95% prediction interval) time (days post introduction) to 10% seroprevalence of African swine fever virus in a pig herd and number of dead infected pigs in the preceding week based on a stochastic SEIR epidemic model
| Scenario | Time to 10% seroprevalence | Number of dead infected pigs in the preceding week | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Herd size | Herd size | |||||
| 50 | 200 | 1,000 | 50 | 200 | 1,000 | |
| 1. Malta, 1978 | 14 (12, 18) | 18 (15, 22) | 22 (20, 24) | 5 (1, 9) | 17 (9, 26) | 88 (68, 115) |
| 2. The Netherlands, 1986 | 21 (17, 29) | 27 (23, 36) | 36 (32, 43) | 7 (2, 14) | 27 (17, 39) | 136 (110, 162) |
| 3. Georgia, 2007 (low) | 38 (28, 50) | 53 (45, 64) | –† | 15 (3, 24) | 33 (12, 52) | –† |
| 4. Georgia, 2007 (medium) | 34 (28, 41) | 43 (40, 48) | 54 (48, 59) | 22 (10, 30) | 61 (38, 92) | 148 (71, 355) |
| 5. Georgia, 2007 (high) | 33 (28, 37) | 42 (36, 47) | 51 (46, 54) | 23 (13, 29) | 68 (38, 94) | 226 (79, 474) |
†
Was never reached before all animals were dead.