Table 3.

Correlation across belief changes

	Δ Expected 1-y stock return (%)	Δ Expected 10-y stock return (% p.a.)	Δ Prob 1-y stock return < −30% (%)	Δ Expected 3-y GDP growth (% p.a.)	Δ Expected 10-y GDP growth (% p.a.)	Δ Prob 3-y GDP growth < −3% (% p.a.)
Feb−Mar
Δ Expected 1-y stock return (%)	1
Δ Expected 10-y stock return (% p.a.)	0.061	1
Δ Prob 1-y stock return < −30% (%)	−0.363	0.094	1
Δ Expected 3-y GDP growth (% p.a.)	0.155	0.140	−0.063	1
Δ Expected 10-y GDP growth (% p.a.)	0.010	0.276	−0.048	0.446	1
Δ Prob 3-y GDP growth < −3% p.a. (%)	−0.188	0.004	0.230	−0.184	−0.037	1
Feb−Apr
Δ Expected 1-y stock return (%)	1
Δ Expected 10-y stock return (% p.a.)	0.113	1
Δ Prob 1-y stock return < −30% (%)	−0.332	0.017	1
Δ Expected 3-y GDP growth (% p.a.)	0.234	0.112	−0.159	1
Δ Expected 10-y GDP growth (% p.a.)	0.074	0.254	−0.019	0.403	1
Δ Prob 3-y GDP growth < −3% p.a. (%)	−0.155	0.025	0.362	−0.243	−0.006	1

Table shows cross-sectional correlation of changes in individual beliefs between the February 2020 and March 2020 waves of the GMSU-Vanguard survey, and between the February 2020 and April 2020 waves. Prob, probability; p.a., per annum.