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. 2021 Jan 19;118(4):e2010316118. doi: 10.1073/pnas.2010316118

Table 3.

Correlation across belief changes

Δ Expected 1-y stock return (%) Δ Expected 10-y stock return (% p.a.) Δ Prob 1-y stock return < −30% (%) Δ Expected 3-y GDP growth (% p.a.) Δ Expected 10-y GDP growth (% p.a.) Δ Prob 3-y GDP growth < −3% (% p.a.)
Feb−Mar
 Δ Expected 1-y stock return (%) 1
 Δ Expected 10-y stock return (% p.a.) 0.061 1
 Δ Prob 1-y stock return < −30% (%) −0.363 0.094 1
 Δ Expected 3-y GDP growth (% p.a.) 0.155 0.140 −0.063 1
 Δ Expected 10-y GDP growth (% p.a.) 0.010 0.276 −0.048 0.446 1
 Δ Prob 3-y GDP growth < −3% p.a. (%) −0.188 0.004 0.230 −0.184 −0.037 1
Feb−Apr
 Δ Expected 1-y stock return (%) 1
  Δ Expected 10-y stock return (% p.a.) 0.113 1
 Δ Prob 1-y stock return < −30% (%) −0.332 0.017 1
 Δ Expected 3-y GDP growth (% p.a.) 0.234 0.112 −0.159 1
 Δ Expected 10-y GDP growth (% p.a.) 0.074 0.254 −0.019 0.403 1
 Δ Prob 3-y GDP growth < −3% p.a. (%) −0.155 0.025 0.362 −0.243 −0.006 1

Table shows cross-sectional correlation of changes in individual beliefs between the February 2020 and March 2020 waves of the GMSU-Vanguard survey, and between the February 2020 and April 2020 waves. Prob, probability; p.a., per annum.