Table 2.

Predictions of cumulative deaths for the end of months one to six after the official epidemic start date (2020-02-19) and the latest date available in 202

	Date1a	20-03-19	20-04-19	20-05-20	20-06-20	20-07-21	20-08-21	Latest date
	Date 2 b	98-12-29	99-01-31	99-02-31	99-03-31	99-04-31	99-05-31	in 2020 c
- First Author, Outcome	S/M d	Value	Value	Value	Value	Value	Value	Value
- MOHME official via ([4, 5])
Cumulative deaths	N/A e	1,284	5,118	7,183	9,507	14,634	20,376	30,712
- Ahmadi [44]
Cumulative deaths	M1 f	1,264	··	··	··	··	··	··
Cumulative deaths	M2 g	1,322	··	··	··	··	··	··
Cumulative deaths	M3 h	1,263	··	··	··	··	··	··
- DELPHI [10]
Total detected deaths	S1i	··	··	··	8,426	··	··	··
- Ghaffarzadegan [41]
Cumulative deaths	S1P1 j	15,317	44,078	70,462	95,658	··	··	··
Cumulative deaths	S1P2 k	15,317	41,702	52,937	66,549	··	··	··
Cumulative deaths	S2P1 l	15,317	44,078	68,383	85,262	··	··	··
Cumulative deaths	S2P2 m	15,317	41,702	52,937	60,015	··	··	··
Cumulative deaths	S3P1 n	15,317	44,078	68,383	80,213	··	··	··
Cumulative deaths	S3P2 o	15,317	41,702	52,937	57,341	··	··	··
- Gu (YYG) [17]
Cumulative deaths, mean	S1i	··	··	··	··	··	31,955	··
Cumulative deaths, lower	S1i	··	··	··	··	··	29,231	··
Cumulative deaths, upper	S1i	··	··	··	··	··	36,014	··
- Haghdoost [27]
Cumulative deaths	S0 p	··	··	30,700	··	··	··	··
Cumulative deaths	S1 q	3,824	9,107	13,450	··	··	··	··
Cumulative deaths	S2 r	2,796	6,231	8,632	··	··	··	··
Cumulative deaths	S3 s	··	··	6,030	··	··	··	··
- IHME [12]
Cumulative deaths, mean t	S1 u	1,215	5,150	7,183	9,495	14,642	20,369	44,087
Cumulative deaths, lower t	S1 u	1,215	5,150	7,183	9,495	14,642	20,369	38,031
Cumulative deaths, upper t	S1 u	1,215	5,150	7,183	9,495	14,642	20,369	51,027
Cumulative deaths, mean t	S2 v	1,215	5,150	7,183	9,495	14,642	20,369	67,186
Cumulative deaths, lower t	S2 v	1,215	5,150	7,183	9,495	14,642	20,369	57,913
Cumulative deaths, upper t	S2 v	1,215	5,150	7,183	9,495	14,642	20,369	72,170
Cumulative deaths, mean t	S3 w	1,215	5,150	7,183	9,495	14,642	20,369	70,877
Cumulative deaths, lower t	S3 w	1,215	5,150	7,183	9,495	14,642	20,369	57,956
Cumulative deaths, upper t	S3 w	1,215	5,150	7,183	9,495	14,642	20,369	86,235
- Imperial [13]
Cumulative deaths, mean	S1 x	763	3,743	5,276	7,303	11,537	16,538	27,195
Cumulative deaths, lower	S1 x	434	2,095	3,067	4,203	6,537	9,895	17,638
Cumulative deaths, upper	S1 x	1,254	6,096	8,462	11,620	17,058	23,543	36,103
Cumulative deaths, mean	S2 y	763	3,743	5,276	7,303	11,537	16,538	32,372
Cumulative deaths, lower	S2 y	434	2,095	3,067	4,203	6,537	9,895	19,989
Cumulative deaths, upper	S2 y	1,254	6,096	8,462	11,620	17,058	23,543	45,124
Cumulative deaths, mean	S3 z	763	3,743	5,276	7,303	11,537	16,538	121,960
Cumulative deaths, lower	S3 z	434	2,095	3,067	4,203	6,537	9,895	42,697
Cumulative deaths, upper	S3 z	1,254	6,096	8,462	11,620	17,058	23,543	252,429
Cumulative deaths, mean	S4 aa	744	3,616	5,089	7,053	11,102	15,908	26,738
Cumulative deaths, lower	S4 aa	388	1,777	2,572	3,590	5,960	9,019	16,176
Cumulative deaths, upper	S4 aa	1,127	5,712	8,112	10,778	16,171	22,470	35,621
Cumulative deaths, mean	S5 bb	744	3,616	5,089	7,053	11,102	15,908	31,916
Cumulative deaths, lower	S5 bb	388	1,777	2,572	3,590	5,960	9,019	18,504
Cumulative deaths, upper	S5 bb	1,127	5,712	8,112	10,778	16,171	22,470	48,300
Cumulative deaths, mean	S6 cc	744	3,616	5,089	7,053	11,102	15,908	85,087
Cumulative deaths, lower	S6 cc	388	1,777	2,572	3,590	5,960	9,019	40,819
Cumulative deaths, upper	S6 cc	1,127	5,712	8,112	10,778	16,171	22,470	158,299
- LANL [14]
Cumulative deaths, median	S1i	1,284	5,118	7,183	9,507	14,634	20,376	34,263
Cumulative deaths, lower	S1i	1,284	5,118	7,183	9,507	14,634	20,376	30,762
Cumulative deaths, upper	S1i	1,284	5,118	7,183	9,507	14,634	20,376	43,022
- Mashayekhi [28]
Cumulative deaths	S1 dd	759	10,316	11,751	11,857	··	··	··
Cumulative deaths	S2 ee	1,285	33,349	61,322	77,302	86,931	92,620	··
Cumulative deaths	S3 ff	11,752	97,445	612,953	1,819,392	3,002,721	3,562,136	··
- Moghadami [36]
Cumulative deaths, meangg	S1i	1,144	5,378	··	··	··	··	··
Cumulative deaths, lowergg	S1i	1,104	3,929	··	··	··	··	··
Cumulative deaths, uppergg	S1i	1,166	7,003	··	··	··	··	··
- Rafieenasab [54]
Cumulative deaths	S2 hh	32,101	39,026	··	··	··	··	··
Cumulative deaths	S3 ii	69,583	388,951	402,569	··	··	··	··
- Srivastava [15]
Cumulative deaths	S1P1 jj	··	··	··	··	··	··	43,631
Cumulative deaths	S1P2 kk	··	··	··	··	··	··	43,282
Cumulative deaths	S1P5 ll	··	··	··	··	··	··	42,289
Cumulative deaths	S1P10 mm	··	··	··	··	··	··	40,802
Cumulative deaths	S1P20 nn	··	··	··	··	··	··	38,324
Cumulative deaths	S1P40 oo	··	··	··	··	··	··	34,721
Cumulative deaths	S2P1 pp	··	··	··	··	··	··	418,834
Cumulative deaths	S2P2 qq	··	··	··	··	··	··	354,756
Cumulative deaths	S2P5 rr	··	··	··	··	··	··	241,214
Cumulative deaths	S2P10 ss	··	··	··	··	··	··	154,826
Cumulative deaths	S2P20 tt	··	··	··	··	··	··	87,664
Cumulative deaths	S2P40 uu	··	··	··	··	··	··	45,995
Cumulative deaths	S3P1 vv	··	··	··	··	··	··	27,959
Cumulative deaths	S3P2 ww	··	··	··	··	··	··	27,786
Cumulative deaths	S3P5 xx	··	··	··	··	··	··	27,327
Cumulative deaths	S3P10 yy	··	··	··	··	··	··	26,724
Cumulative deaths	S3P20 zz	··	··	··	··	··	··	25,909
Cumulative deaths	S3P40 aaa	··	··	··	··	··	··	25,043

^a Date 1: Gregorian

^b Date 2: Hijri

^c Latest date in 2020: As of 2020-10-19 for MOHME official via ([4, 5]), 2020-11-01 for Gu (YYG) [17], 2020–12–31 for IHME [12] and Imperial [13] [2020-11-28 for LANL [14], and 2020-12-19 for Srivastava [15]

^d S/M: Scenario / Model

^e N/A: Not Applicable

^f M1: Gompertz

^g M2: Von Bertalanffy growth

^h M3: Cubic Polynomial

ⁱ S1: Single scenario

^j S1P1: Seasonality conditions 1 (no effect or status quo) and Policy effect 1 (status quo contact rate). Estimates for 2020-03-19, the end of first month after the epidemic start date, are equal across the six scenarios

^k S1P2: Seasonality conditions 1 (no effect or status quo) and Policy effect 2 (aggressive efforts to decrease contact rate by half of what it would be otherwise)

^l S2P1: Seasonality conditions 2 (moderate effect; infectivity of the virus decreases linearly from April 1st and halves by June 1st, then stays the same for the rest of the simulation) and Policy effect 1 (status quo contact rate)

^m S2P2: Seasonality conditions 2 (moderate effect; infectivity of the virus decreases linearly from April 1st and halves by June 1st, then stays the same for the rest of the simulation) and Policy effect 2 (aggressive efforts to decrease contact rate by half of what it would be otherwise)

ⁿ S3P1: Seasonality conditions 3 (very strong mitigating effect; infectivity of the virus decreases from April 1st to a quarter of its base value by June 1st, then stays the same for the rest of the simulation) and Policy effect 1 (status quo contact rate)

^o S3P2: Seasonality conditions 3 (very strong mitigating effect; infectivity of the virus decreases from April 1st to a quarter of its base value by June 1st, then stays the same for the rest of the simulation) and Policy effect 2 (aggressive efforts to decrease contact rate by half of what it would be otherwise)

^p S0: Basic scenario (no intervention), only 10% isolation

^q S1: Worst scenario, minimum (25%) isolation

^r S2: Medium scenario, medium (32%) isolation

^s S3: Best scenario, maximum (40%) isolation

^t Smoothed estimates

^u S1 Best (Masks): ‘Universal Masks’ scenario reflects 95% mask usage in public in every location

^v S2 Reference (Current): ‘Current projection’ scenario assumes social distancing mandates are re-imposed for 6 weeks whenever daily deaths reach 8 per million (0.8 per 100,000)

^w S3 Worse (Easing): ‘Mandates easing’ scenario reflects continued easing of social distancing mandates, and mandates are not re-imposed

^x S1: Additional 50% Reduction

^y S2: Maintain Status Quo

^z S3: Relax Interventions 50%

^aa S4: Surged Additional 50% Reduction

^bb S5: Surged Maintain Status Quo

^cc S6: Surged Relax Interventions 50%

^dd S1: Serious distancing

^ee S2: Not serious distancing

^ff S3: Worse than Scenario 2

^gg Dates for Moghadami [36] are 2020-03-21 and 2020-04-18, instead of 2020-03-19 and 2020-04-19 respectively

^hh S2: Based on SIR model

ⁱⁱ S3: Approximation calculation

^jj S1P1: Scenario Current, Parameter 1

^kk S1P2: Scenario Current, Parameter 2

^ll S1P5: Scenario Current, Parameter 5

^mm S1P10: Scenario Current, Parameter 10

ⁿⁿ S1P20: Scenario Current, Parameter 20

^oo S1P40: Scenario Current, Parameter 40

^pp S2P1: Scenario Released, Parameter 1

^qq S2P2: Scenario Released, Parameter 2

^rr S2P5: Scenario Released, Parameter 5

^ss S2P10: Scenario Released, Parameter 10

^tt S2P20: Scenario Released, Parameter 20

^uu S2P40: Scenario Released, Parameter 40

^vv S3P1: Scenario Restricted, Parameter 1

^ww S3P2: Scenario Restricted, Parameter 2

^xx S3P5: Scenario Restricted, Parameter 5

^yy S3P10: Scenario Restricted, Parameter 10

^zz S3P20: Scenario Restricted, Parameter 20

^aaa S3P40: Scenario Restricted, Parameter 40