Table 3.
Lowest and highest predictions at the end of month 2 (2020-04-19), month 4 (2020-06-20) after the official epidemic start date (2020-02-19), and the latest dates available in 2020 and 2021
| Outcomes: | Lowest | Study | MOHME | Highest | Study |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| - End of month 2 (20–04-19) | |||||
| Cumulative deaths | 1,777 | Imperial a | 5,118 | 388,951 | Rafieenasab b |
| Daily deaths | 30 | Imperial a | 87 | 11,289 | Rahimi Rise c |
| Cumulative cases | 20,588 | Al-Qaness d | 82,211 | 2,310,161 | IHME e |
| Incident daily cases | 93 | Thu f | 1,343 | 216,262 | Rahimi Rise c |
| Incident daily total cases g k | 72,950 | Saberi (paper) h | .. | 1,616,385 | Saberi (paper) i |
| - End of month 4 (20–06-20) | |||||
| Cumulative deaths | 3,590 | Imperial a | 9,507 | 1,819,392 | Mashayekhi j |
| Daily deaths | 5 | Mashayekhi k | 115 | 44,934 | Mashayekhi j |
| Cumulative cases | 144,305 | DELPHI l | 202,584 | 4,266,964 | IHME e |
| Incident daily cases | 211 | DELPHI l | 2,322 | 138,892 | Gu (YYG) m |
| Incident daily total cases g | 9,625 | Saberi (paper) h | .. | 1,255,012 | Saberi (paper) i |
| - Latest date available in 2020 | |||||
| Cumulative deaths | 16,176 | Imperial n | 30,712 o | 418,834 | Srivastava p |
| Daily deaths | 0 | Imperial a | 373 o | 3,984 | Imperial q |
| Cumulative cases | 3,588,293 | Imperial n | 534,631o | 41,475,792 | Imperial q |
| Incident daily cases | 0 | Imperial a | 4,251o | 486,745 | Imperial e |
| Incident daily total cases g | 9,625 | Saberi (paper) h | .. | 169,110 | Saberi (paper) i |
| - Latest date available in 2021 | |||||
| Cumulative deaths | 40,151 | IHME r | .. | 125,690 | IHME s |
| Daily deaths | 55 | IHME r | .. | 1,093 | IHME s |
| Cumulative cases | 19,799,934 | IHME r | .. | 34,417,912 | IHME s |
| Incident daily cases | 14,818 | IHME r | .. | 236,781 | IHME s |
a Imperial, S4: Surged Additional 50% Reduction. Lower 95% uncertainty limit [13]
b Rafieenasab, S3: Approximation calculation. Mean estimate [54]
c Rahimi Rise, S2: No interventions. Mean estimate [29]
d Al-Qaness, M1: Adaptive Neuro-Fuzzy Inference System (ANFIS) enhanced with Genetic Algorithm (GA). Mean estimate [51]
e IHME, S2 Reference (Current): ‘Current projection’ scenario assumes social distancing mandates are re-imposed for 6 weeks whenever daily deaths reach 8 per million (0.8 per 100,000). Upper 95% uncertainty limit [12]
f Thu, M1: Linear growth rate, eq. 1. Mean estimate [48]
g Saberi (paper), Incident daily total cases (confirmed and suspected) [22]
h Saberi (paper), S1: 20% more distancing. Mean estimate [22]
i Saberi (paper), S3: 20% less distancing. Upper 95% uncertainty limit [22]
j Mashayekhi, S3: Worse than Scenario 2 (S2: Not serious distancing). Mean estimate [28]
k Mashayekhi, S1: S1: Serious distancing. Mean estimate [28]
l DELPHI, S1: Single scenario. Mean estimate [10]
m Gu (YYG) S1, Single scenario. Upper 95% uncertainty limit [17]
n Imperial, S4: Surged Additional 50% Reduction. Lower 95% uncertainty limit. For 2020-12-31 [13]
o MOHME official via ([4, 5]), as of 2020-10-19
p Srivastava, S2P1: Scenario Released, Parameter 1. mean estimate For 2020-12-19 [15]
q Imperial, S3: Relax Interventions 50%. Upper 95% uncertainty limit. For 2020-12-31 [13]
r IHME, S1Best (Masks): ‘Universal Masks’ scenario reflects 95% mask usage in public in every location. Lower 95% uncertainty limit. For 2021-01-31 [12]
s IHME, S3 Worse (Easing): ‘Mandates easing’ scenario reflects continued easing of social distancing mandates, and mandates are not re-imposed. Upper 95% uncertainty limit. For 2021-01-31 [12]