Table 2.
Effects of COVID-19 cases and deaths on human mobility.
| (1) | (2) | (3) | (4) | (5) | (6) | (7) | (8) | (9) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ret&Rec | Ret&Rec | Ret&Rec | Gro&Phar | Gro&Phar | Gro&Phar | Parks | Parks | Parks | |
| Total COVID-19 cases: 1 | −2.18 | −2.09 | −1.13 | −4.68*** | −3.90** | −4.64*** | −1.84 | −2.10 | −2.06 |
| (1.41) | (1.54) | (1.42) | (1.48) | (1.60) | (1.47) | (2.00) | (2.06) | (1.98) | |
| Total COVID-19 cases: 2 | −2.91** | −4.21** | −0.47 | −6.93*** | −7.50*** | −4.84*** | −0.42 | −0.04 | 0.32 |
| (1.43) | (1.75) | (1.52) | (1.72) | (2.06) | (1.72) | (2.20) | (2.41) | (2.10) | |
| Total COVID-19 cases: 3 | −2.89 | −5.56** | −1.09 | −7.34*** | −9.07*** | −5.76** | −0.11 | −0.46 | −0.09 |
| (2.35) | (2.67) | (2.40) | (2.59) | (3.00) | (2.73) | (2.93) | (3.34) | (2.70) | |
| Total COVID-19 cases: 4–5 | −1.68 | −4.67* | −1.81 | −7.38*** | −9.86*** | −6.71*** | 1.55 | 1.70 | 0.35 |
| (2.22) | (2.66) | (2.17) | (2.33) | (2.82) | (2.30) | (3.50) | (3.95) | (3.24) | |
| Total COVID-19 cases: 6–10 | −5.07* | −9.88*** | −4.22 | −10.09*** | −14.14*** | −8.93*** | −0.36 | −0.67 | −1.68 |
| (2.84) | (3.27) | (2.59) | (2.82) | (3.17) | (2.79) | (3.72) | (4.36) | (3.14) | |
| Total COVID-19 cases: 11–19 | −6.13* | −4.68 | −5.32* | −8.28** | −7.57** | −7.65** | −0.58 | 1.89 | −1.78 |
| (3.39) | (3.48) | (2.97) | (3.27) | (3.36) | (3.20) | (3.98) | (4.81) | (3.47) | |
| Total COVID-19 cases: 20–29 | −9.23** | −7.99* | −9.30*** | −11.50*** | −11.21*** | −11.95*** | −2.29 | −0.32 | −4.49 |
| (3.94) | (4.02) | (3.50) | (3.66) | (3.85) | (3.86) | (4.82) | (5.50) | (4.21) | |
| Total COVID-19 cases: 30–49 | −10.12** | −8.74* | −9.81** | −10.15** | −7.56 | −9.82** | −1.24 | 2.61 | −3.99 |
| (4.21) | (4.53) | (3.83) | (4.34) | (4.81) | (4.74) | (5.12) | (6.48) | (4.65) | |
| Total COVID-19 cases: 50–99 | −9.92** | −8.85* | −9.81** | −9.66** | −8.25* | −10.59** | −2.31 | −1.13 | −5.40 |
| (4.61) | (4.66) | (4.00) | (4.19) | (4.57) | (4.65) | (5.32) | (6.82) | (4.61) | |
| Total COVID-19 cases: 100–199 | −12.76** | −14.95*** | −13.25*** | −11.64** | −12.39** | −13.23** | −6.53 | −4.26 | −9.14 |
| (5.17) | (5.10) | (4.66) | (4.76) | (4.74) | (5.30) | (6.05) | (7.02) | (5.82) | |
| Total COVID-19 cases: >=200 | −13.55** | −15.25*** | −13.59*** | −11.07* | −11.47** | −12.70** | −6.61 | −4.06 | −8.99 |
| (5.77) | (5.56) | (5.06) | (5.69) | (5.46) | (6.01) | (6.31) | (6.82) | (5.82) | |
| Total COVID-19 deaths: 1 | −3.64* | −3.53* | −4.48** | −2.41 | −2.13 | −3.47 | −1.81 | −1.49 | −2.32 |
| (2.05) | (2.06) | (2.14) | (1.97) | (2.01) | (2.25) | (1.84) | (1.83) | (1.99) | |
| Total COVID-19 deaths: 2 | −5.65** | −4.80* | −7.72** | −5.85* | −4.81 | −8.83** | −2.80 | −2.78 | −4.37 |
| (2.52) | (2.64) | (3.18) | (3.20) | (3.15) | (4.20) | (3.83) | (3.63) | (3.90) | |
| Total COVID-19 deaths: 3 | −3.73 | −3.22 | −4.17 | −3.64 | −2.84 | −5.19 | −2.87 | −2.97 | −3.22 |
| (3.10) | (3.01) | (3.22) | (3.17) | (3.09) | (3.58) | (3.37) | (3.32) | (3.56) | |
| Total COVID-19 deaths: 4–5 | −5.18 | −5.70 | −6.19 | −5.48 | −5.64 | −6.97 | −0.64 | −0.47 | −0.66 |
| (3.77) | (3.59) | (4.08) | (3.65) | (3.47) | (4.21) | (3.43) | (3.67) | (3.49) | |
| Total COVID-19 deaths: >=6 | −0.83 | −2.54 | −2.81 | −0.29 | −1.43 | −3.47 | −2.99 | −2.97 | −4.24 |
| (3.57) | (3.48) | (4.11) | (4.09) | (4.08) | (5.22) | (5.37) | (5.39) | (6.25) | |
| Seven COVID-19 policy measures with dynamic effects | Yes | Yes | Yes | ||||||
| Seven COVID-19 policy measures with dynamic effects and interactions with the stage of the epidemic | Yes | Yes | Yes | ||||||
| Seven COVID-19 policies disaggregated by stringency levels | Yes | Yes | Yes | ||||||
| Constant | 86.81*** | 87.32*** | 87.26*** | 88.32*** | 88.47*** | 85.57*** | 71.58*** | 72.14*** | 69.53*** |
| (3.37) | (3.32) | (3.62) | (3.37) | (3.29) | (4.13) | (5.01) | (4.99) | (5.05) | |
| Observations | 1971 | 1971 | 1909 | 1971 | 1971 | 1909 | 1971 | 1971 | 1909 |
| Adjusted R-squared | 0.806 | 0.811 | 0.810 | 0.603 | 0.609 | 0.581 | 0.500 | 0.499 | 0.516 |
| (10) | (11) | (12) | (13) | (14) | (15) | (16) | (17) | (18) | |
| Transit | Transit | Transit | Work | Work | Work | Resid | Resid | Resid | |
| Total COVID-19 cases: 1 | −2.41* | −2.95** | −1.61 | −2.37 | −2.42 | −1.52 | 1.03* | 1.05* | 0.67 |
| (1.32) | (1.47) | (1.35) | (1.60) | (1.69) | (1.67) | (0.53) | (0.55) | (0.55) | |
| Total COVID-19 cases: 2 | −2.85* | −3.53* | −0.42 | −5.34** | −5.27** | −2.74 | 1.18* | 1.12 | 0.15 |
| (1.57) | (1.80) | (1.70) | (2.12) | (2.40) | (2.04) | (0.62) | (0.81) | (0.56) | |
| Total COVID-19 cases: 3 | −3.28 | −4.74* | −1.28 | −6.64** | −7.74** | −4.52 | 1.79* | 2.10* | 0.88 |
| (2.30) | (2.38) | (2.40) | (2.92) | (3.11) | (2.91) | (0.99) | (1.13) | (0.98) | |
| Total COVID-19 cases: 4–5 | −2.45 | −4.37* | −2.70 | −5.87** | −7.82** | −5.39** | 1.55* | 2.11* | 1.52* |
| (2.10) | (2.51) | (2.14) | (2.64) | (3.03) | (2.46) | (0.87) | (1.10) | (0.81) | |
| Total COVID-19 cases: 6–10 | −4.96** | −8.46*** | −3.83 | −7.78** | −11.73*** | −5.89** | 2.06** | 3.06** | 1.43 |
| (2.49) | (2.89) | (2.39) | (3.14) | (3.35) | (2.91) | (1.00) | (1.19) | (0.93) | |
| Total COVID-19 cases: 11–19 | −5.72* | −4.43 | −4.68* | −7.46** | −5.44 | −5.83* | 1.89* | 1.43 | 1.33 |
| (2.92) | (3.22) | (2.67) | (3.42) | (3.68) | (2.97) | (1.12) | (1.29) | (1.06) | |
| Total COVID-19 cases: 20–29 | −8.08** | −6.77* | −7.55** | −9.31** | −7.48* | −8.01** | 2.47* | 2.13 | 2.26* |
| (3.42) | (3.76) | (3.26) | (4.04) | (4.29) | (3.57) | (1.31) | (1.49) | (1.27) | |
| Total COVID-19 cases: 30–49 | −10.71*** | −9.42** | −9.79*** | −11.44** | −8.92* | −9.81** | 3.25** | 2.83* | 2.87** |
| (3.95) | (4.21) | (3.66) | (4.33) | (4.61) | (3.75) | (1.48) | (1.66) | (1.40) | |
| Total COVID-19 cases: 50–99 | −10.58** | −9.02** | −9.91** | −7.91* | −5.70 | −6.57* | 2.57* | 2.63 | 2.34 |
| (4.24) | (4.33) | (3.80) | (4.51) | (4.72) | (3.93) | (1.52) | (1.65) | (1.43) | |
| Total COVID-19 cases: 100–199 | −12.23*** | −13.90*** | −12.13*** | −9.38* | −9.72* | −8.84* | 3.10* | 4.49** | 3.24* |
| (4.60) | (4.84) | (4.31) | (5.07) | (5.25) | (4.56) | (1.81) | (1.79) | (1.74) | |
| Total COVID-19 cases: >=200 | −14.11*** | −15.39*** | −13.78*** | −9.50 | −9.49 | −8.17 | 3.76* | 5.04** | 3.63* |
| (5.17) | (5.43) | (4.49) | (6.02) | (6.13) | (5.12) | (2.14) | (2.07) | (1.97) | |
| Total COVID-19 deaths: 1 | −1.48 | −1.53 | −1.89 | −2.08 | −1.74 | −2.44 | 1.22 | 1.11 | 1.25 |
| (2.04) | (2.02) | (1.99) | (2.09) | (2.13) | (2.12) | (0.84) | (0.84) | (0.85) | |
| Total COVID-19 deaths: 2 | −3.03 | −2.61 | −4.68 | −4.56 | −3.55 | −6.16* | 2.15* | 1.90* | 2.81** |
| (2.43) | (2.51) | (3.04) | (2.94) | (2.90) | (3.54) | (1.15) | (1.14) | (1.40) | |
| Total COVID-19 deaths: 3 | −2.63 | −2.21 | −2.65 | −1.48 | −0.39 | −1.74 | 1.43 | 1.19 | 1.39 |
| (2.95) | (2.82) | (2.84) | (3.21) | (3.05) | (3.28) | (1.19) | (1.15) | (1.16) | |
| Total COVID-19 deaths: 4–5 | −4.33 | −4.76 | −5.41 | −5.62* | −5.86* | −6.95* | 2.25 | 2.53* | 2.60* |
| (3.55) | (3.31) | (3.70) | (3.23) | (3.09) | (3.56) | (1.37) | (1.29) | (1.35) | |
| Total COVID-19 deaths: >=6 | −0.76 | −2.36 | −3.33 | −2.55 | −3.56 | −4.62 | 1.28 | 1.93 | 2.49* |
| (3.49) | (3.24) | (3.70) | (3.31) | (3.21) | (3.74) | (1.37) | (1.30) | (1.44) | |
| Seven COVID-19 policy measures with dynamic effects | Yes | Yes | Yes | ||||||
| Seven COVID-19 policy measures with dynamic effects and interactions with the stage of the epidemic | Yes | Yes | Yes | ||||||
| Seven COVID-19 policies disaggregated by stringency levels | Yes | Yes | Yes | ||||||
| Constant | 86.44*** | 86.74*** | 87.46*** | 98.94*** | 99.22*** | 100.72*** | 102.21*** | 101.94*** | 102.12*** |
| (3.04) | (3.06) | (3.15) | (3.99) | (4.01) | (4.26) | (1.52) | (1.52) | (1.55) | |
| Observations | 1971 | 1971 | 1909 | 1971 | 1971 | 1909 | 1961 | 1961 | 1899 |
| Adjusted R-squared | 0.836 | 0.840 | 0.835 | 0.717 | 0.721 | 0.720 | 0.783 | 0.786 | 0.786 |
All models include country fixed effects, cubic polynomial in ambient temperature, days of the week fixed effects and regional cubic polynomial trends in the number of days from the first COVID-19 case. Standard errors clustered at the country level are in parentheses. Asterisks denote statistical significance: * p<0.10, ** p<0.05, *** p<0.01.