Table A1.
Effect of COVID-19 cases and mortality on human mobility: calendar days regional trends, model (1).
| (1) | (2) | (3) | (4) | (5) | (6) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ret&Rec | Gro&Phar | Parks | Transit | Work | Resid | |
| Total COVID-19 cases: 1 | −4.87*** | −5.63*** | −5.41** | −3.81** | −2.25 | 1.68*** |
| (1.75) | (1.56) | (2.22) | (1.46) | (1.45) | (0.58) | |
| Total COVID-19 cases: 2 | −5.08** | −7.98*** | −4.78** | −3.67** | −4.50** | 1.72** |
| (1.93) | (2.00) | (2.28) | (1.79) | (1.86) | (0.66) | |
| Total COVID-19 cases: 3 | −4.98* | −7.80** | −4.20 | −3.83 | −5.50** | 2.11** |
| (2.96) | (2.95) | (2.79) | (2.39) | (2.57) | (1.00) | |
| Total COVID-19 cases: 4–5 | −3.75 | −7.72*** | −2.46 | −2.88 | −4.01* | 1.65* |
| (2.40) | (2.50) | (3.34) | (2.04) | (2.31) | (0.84) | |
| Total COVID-19 cases: 6–10 | −6.76** | −10.49*** | −4.30 | −5.13** | −6.29** | 2.14** |
| (2.79) | (2.79) | (3.53) | (2.33) | (2.70) | (0.93) | |
| Total COVID-19 cases: 11–19 | −6.94** | −8.78*** | −5.14 | −5.32* | −5.55* | 1.79* |
| (3.31) | (3.31) | (3.67) | (2.79) | (3.07) | (1.00) | |
| Total COVID-19 cases: 20–29 | −9.78** | −11.95*** | −7.03 | −7.12** | −7.20** | 2.25* |
| (3.89) | (3.62) | (4.35) | (3.28) | (3.54) | (1.18) | |
| Total COVID-19 cases: 30–49 | −10.68** | −10.89** | −6.54 | −9.77*** | −9.58** | 2.96** |
| (4.07) | (4.18) | (4.74) | (3.63) | (3.79) | (1.31) | |
| Total COVID-19 cases: 50–99 | −10.16** | −10.51** | −7.38 | −9.39** | −6.13 | 2.16 |
| (4.42) | (4.11) | (4.77) | (3.89) | (3.91) | (1.32) | |
| Total COVID-19 cases: | −13.08*** | −12.67*** | −11.30** | −10.97** | −7.79* | 2.75* |
| 100–199 | (4.87) | (4.51) | (5.56) | (4.22) | (4.51) | (1.64) |
| Total COVID-19 cases: >=200 | −13.43** | −12.47** | −9.31 | −12.42** | −8.14 | 3.18* |
| (5.55) | (5.48) | (6.00) | (4.77) | (5.36) | (1.87) | |
| Total COVID-19 deaths: 1 | −1.20 | −0.24 | −1.78 | 0.59 | 0.10 | 0.39 |
| (1.97) | (1.95) | (1.81) | (1.90) | (1.86) | (0.82) | |
| Total COVID-19 deaths: 2 | −4.78* | −4.09 | −2.88 | −2.78 | −4.33 | 2.16** |
| (2.65) | (3.13) | (3.70) | (2.15) | (2.65) | (1.04) | |
| Total COVID-19 deaths: 3 | −1.58 | −1.08 | −2.04 | −1.22 | 0.29 | 0.85 |
| (2.97) | (3.08) | (3.38) | (2.70) | (2.86) | (1.06) | |
| Total COVID-19 deaths: 4–5 | −3.93 | −4.11 | −1.94 | −3.70 | −4.35 | 1.88 |
| (4.01) | (3.85) | (3.69) | (3.54) | (3.48) | (1.32) | |
| Total COVID-19 deaths: >=6 | 2.09 | 4.42 | 0.99 | 0.65 | 0.30 | 0.43 |
| (3.24) | (3.31) | (4.72) | (3.16) | (3.06) | (1.18) | |
| Seven COVID-19 policy measures with dynamic effects | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes |
| Observations | 1971 | 1971 | 1971 | 1971 | 1971 | 1961 |
| Adjusted R-squared | 0.824 | 0.629 | 0.514 | 0.855 | 0.751 | 0.803 |
| Effect of COVID-19 cases and mortality on human mobility: calendar days regional trends, model (2) | ||||||
| Total COVID-19 cases: 1 | −4.62** | −4.79*** | −5.70** | −4.35*** | −2.33 | 1.72*** |
| (1.97) | (1.73) | (2.35) | (1.60) | (1.68) | (0.64) | |
| Total COVID-19 cases: 2 | −6.51*** | −8.98*** | −5.30** | −4.50** | −4.71** | 1.73** |
| (2.01) | (2.07) | (2.32) | (1.76) | (2.05) | (0.72) | |
| Total COVID-19 cases: 3 | −7.28** | −9.36*** | −5.29* | −5.10** | −6.24** | 2.30** |
| (3.11) | (3.14) | (3.09) | (2.35) | (2.71) | (1.06) | |
| Total COVID-19 cases: 4–5 | −6.10** | −10.11*** | −2.96 | −4.36** | −5.41** | 1.98** |
| (2.60) | (2.69) | (3.56) | (2.13) | (2.55) | (0.94) | |
| Total COVID-19 cases: 6–10 | −9.88*** | −13.52*** | −4.78 | −7.19*** | −8.43*** | 2.47** |
| (3.21) | (3.00) | (4.01) | (2.49) | (2.89) | (1.01) | |
| Total COVID-19 cases: 11–19 | −6.15* | −9.86*** | −3.84 | −4.28* | −4.87* | 1.50 |
| (3.15) | (3.04) | (4.23) | (2.50) | (2.79) | (0.96) | |
| Total COVID-19 cases: 20–29 | −8.98** | −13.39*** | −6.25 | −5.89* | −6.53* | 2.00* |
| (3.73) | (3.39) | (4.85) | (3.05) | (3.30) | (1.14) | |
| Total COVID-19 cases: 30–49 | −10.15** | −10.74** | −5.21 | −8.38** | −8.69** | 2.57** |
| (4.28) | (4.61) | (5.85) | (3.23) | (3.77) | (1.29) | |
| Total COVID-19 cases: 50–99 | −9.24** | −10.75** | −7.65 | −7.21** | −4.69 | 2.03 |
| (4.33) | (4.29) | (5.82) | (3.40) | (3.87) | (1.27) | |
| Total COVID-19 cases: | −14.67*** | −15.31*** | −13.00* | −11.30*** | −8.10* | 3.81** |
| 100–199 | (4.75) | (4.43) | (6.83) | (4.01) | (4.46) | (1.53) |
| Total COVID-19 cases: >=200 | −14.61*** | −14.74*** | −10.61 | −12.39*** | −8.21 | 4.18** |
| (5.15) | (5.22) | (6.89) | (4.48) | (5.27) | (1.74) | |
| Total COVID-19 deaths: 1 | −1.29 | −0.11 | −1.64 | 0.43 | 0.25 | 0.29 |
| (2.01) | (1.98) | (1.88) | (1.86) | (1.92) | (0.80) | |
| Total COVID-19 deaths: 2 | −4.54 | −3.62 | −3.10 | −2.75 | −3.89 | 2.09** |
| (2.74) | (3.13) | (3.56) | (2.22) | (2.67) | (1.04) | |
| Total COVID-19 deaths: 3 | −1.65 | −0.72 | −2.16 | −1.11 | 0.80 | 0.70 |
| (2.89) | (3.01) | (3.35) | (2.60) | (2.74) | (1.03) | |
| Total COVID-19 deaths: 4–5 | −4.93 | −4.77 | −2.44 | −4.40 | −4.83 | 2.25* |
| (3.76) | (3.53) | (3.84) | (3.23) | (3.22) | (1.24) | |
| Total COVID-19 deaths: >=6 | 0.16 | 2.85 | −0.20 | −0.86 | −0.72 | 1.03 |
| (3.02) | (3.21) | (4.86) | (2.92) | (2.91) | (1.12) | |
| Seven COVID-19 policy measures with dynamic effects and interactions with the stage of the epidemic | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes |
| Observations | 1971 | 1971 | 1971 | 1971 | 1971 | 1961 |
| Adjusted R-squared | 0.826 | 0.634 | 0.511 | 0.857 | 0.751 | 0.804 |
| Effect of COVID-19 cases and mortality on human mobility: calendar days regional trends, model (3) | ||||||
| Total COVID-19 cases: 1 | −4.68*** | −6.87*** | −5.67** | −3.79** | −1.90 | 1.63*** |
| (1.72) | (1.66) | (2.23) | (1.63) | (1.56) | (0.60) | |
| Total COVID-19 cases: 2 | −4.28** | −7.89*** | −4.73* | −2.76 | −3.12* | 1.34** |
| (2.00) | (2.18) | (2.49) | (1.95) | (1.78) | (0.62) | |
| Total COVID-19 cases: 3 | −4.31 | −7.72** | −4.14 | −2.87 | −4.03* | 1.61* |
| (2.74) | (3.00) | (2.97) | (2.26) | (2.28) | (0.89) | |
| Total COVID-19 cases: 4–5 | −4.89** | −8.95*** | −3.69 | −4.13** | −4.40** | 2.07*** |
| (2.34) | (2.60) | (3.40) | (2.03) | (2.16) | (0.77) | |
| Total COVID-19 cases: 6–10 | −6.78** | −10.92*** | −5.45 | −4.89** | −5.04** | 1.91** |
| (2.58) | (2.83) | (3.56) | (2.18) | (2.44) | (0.88) | |
| Total COVID-19 cases: 11–19 | −6.91** | −9.41*** | −5.97 | −4.86** | −4.24 | 1.54* |
| (2.80) | (3.14) | (3.76) | (2.39) | (2.54) | (0.86) | |
| Total COVID-19 cases: 20–29 | −10.40*** | −13.55*** | −8.71** | −7.06** | −6.06* | 2.25** |
| (3.40) | (3.64) | (4.34) | (2.98) | (3.10) | (1.05) | |
| Total COVID-19 cases: 30–49 | −10.39*** | −11.11** | −8.68* | −8.65*** | −7.41** | 2.60** |
| (3.59) | (4.32) | (4.78) | (3.25) | (3.25) | (1.15) | |
| Total COVID-19 cases: 50–99 | −9.99*** | −11.77*** | −9.54** | −8.40** | −3.96 | 1.84 |
| (3.74) | (4.01) | (4.70) | (3.42) | (3.42) | (1.18) | |
| Total COVID-19 cases: | −12.77*** | −13.77*** | −12.89** | −9.86** | −5.61 | 2.50* |
| 100–199 | (4.22) | (4.48) | (5.65) | (3.76) | (3.97) | (1.50) |
| Total COVID-19 cases: >=200 | −12.56** | −13.31** | −11.20* | −10.81** | −4.74 | 2.54 |
| (4.88) | (5.48) | (5.98) | (4.13) | (4.61) | (1.73) | |
| Total COVID-19 deaths: 1 | −1.56 | −0.37 | −1.82 | 1.00 | 0.48 | 0.22 |
| (2.01) | (2.08) | (1.97) | (1.77) | (1.89) | (0.82) | |
| Total COVID-19 deaths: 2 | −5.80** | −6.00 | −3.88 | −3.04 | −4.81* | 2.35** |
| (2.83) | (3.68) | (3.64) | (2.31) | (2.79) | (1.11) | |
| Total COVID-19 deaths: 3 | −1.34 | −1.35 | −1.73 | −0.23 | 0.92 | 0.51 |
| (2.79) | (3.00) | (3.24) | (2.35) | (2.76) | (0.93) | |
| Total COVID-19 deaths: 4–5 | −4.07 | −4.13 | −0.92 | −3.52 | −4.78 | 1.92 |
| (3.97) | (3.96) | (3.81) | (3.48) | (3.67) | (1.29) | |
| Total COVID-19 deaths: >=6 | 1.41 | 3.48 | 1.48 | −0.42 | −0.81 | 1.10 |
| (3.28) | (3.66) | (4.96) | (3.06) | (3.18) | (1.12) | |
| Seven COVID-19 policies disaggregated by stringency levels | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes |
| Observations | 1909 | 1909 | 1909 | 1909 | 1909 | 1899 |
| Adjusted R-squared | 0.829 | 0.619 | 0.537 | 0.858 | 0.760 | 0.811 |
All models include country fixed effects, cubic polynomial in ambient temperature, days of the week fixed effects and regional cubic polinomial trends in calendar days.
Standard errors clustered at the country level are in parentheses.
Asterisks denote statistical significance: * p<0.10, ** p<0.05, *** p<0.01.