Table A2.
Effect of COVID-19 cases and mortality on human mobility: added quadratic and cubic in calendar days regional trends, model (1).
| (1) | (2) | (3) | (4) | (5) | (6) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ret&Rec | Gro&Phar | Parks | Transit | Work | Resid | |
| Total COVID-19 cases: 1 | −2.40 | −4.83*** | −1.80 | −2.72* | −2.66 | 1.11** |
| (1.49) | (1.50) | (2.01) | (1.40) | (1.61) | (0.53) | |
| Total COVID-19 cases: 2 | −2.35* | −6.61*** | −0.44 | −2.25 | −4.70** | 1.01* |
| (1.37) | (1.70) | (2.14) | (1.43) | (1.98) | (0.58) | |
| Total COVID-19 cases: 3 | −2.41 | −6.60** | 1.09 | −2.68 | −6.20** | 1.48 |
| (2.33) | (2.59) | (2.90) | (2.22) | (2.76) | (0.95) | |
| Total COVID-19 cases: 4–5 | −1.65 | −6.65*** | 2.45 | −2.15 | −5.39** | 1.31 |
| (2.14) | (2.27) | (3.35) | (2.08) | (2.59) | (0.85) | |
| Total COVID-19 cases: 6–10 | −5.19* | −9.81*** | 1.38 | −4.60* | −7.90** | 1.80* |
| (2.81) | (2.76) | (3.67) | (2.49) | (3.08) | (1.00) | |
| Total COVID-19 cases: 11–19 | −5.58 | −7.89** | 1.13 | −4.77 | −7.16** | 1.46 |
| (3.42) | (3.27) | (3.88) | (2.93) | (3.34) | (1.12) | |
| Total COVID-19 cases: 20–29 | −8.51** | −11.18*** | 0.00 | −6.96** | −9.17** | 2.01 |
| (3.96) | (3.62) | (4.59) | (3.41) | (3.99) | (1.33) | |
| Total COVID-19 cases: 30–49 | −9.52** | −10.15** | 0.98 | −9.48** | −11.38*** | 2.70* |
| (4.13) | (4.31) | (4.83) | (3.82) | (4.17) | (1.48) | |
| Total COVID-19 cases: 50–99 | −9.35** | −9.82** | 0.10 | −9.28** | −8.12* | 2.04 |
| (4.47) | (4.19) | (5.24) | (4.03) | (4.26) | (1.50) | |
| Total COVID-19 cases: | −12.25** | −11.96** | −3.01 | −10.85** | −9.81** | 2.60 |
| 100–199 | (4.96) | (4.68) | (5.61) | (4.34) | (4.88) | (1.79) |
| Total COVID-19 cases: >=200 | −12.57** | −11.34** | −2.55 | −11.73** | −9.49 | 2.93 |
| (5.58) | (5.59) | (6.12) | (4.84) | (5.72) | (2.02) | |
| Total COVID-19 deaths: 1 | −1.87 | −0.67 | −1.97 | 0.15 | −0.25 | 0.52 |
| (2.02) | (1.93) | (1.77) | (1.97) | (1.92) | (0.79) | |
| Total COVID-19 deaths: 2 | −5.19** | −5.02 | −3.02 | −3.36 | −4.44 | 2.20** |
| (2.48) | (3.04) | (3.82) | (2.26) | (2.76) | (1.07) | |
| Total COVID-19 deaths: 3 | −2.21 | −1.85 | −3.30 | −1.58 | 0.36 | 0.86 |
| (2.96) | (3.03) | (3.27) | (2.77) | (2.93) | (1.04) | |
| Total COVID-19 deaths: 4–5 | −4.21 | −4.66 | −2.60 | −3.90 | −4.17 | 1.87 |
| (3.83) | (3.72) | (3.67) | (3.50) | (3.36) | (1.30) | |
| Total COVID-19 deaths: >=6 | 1.58 | 3.32 | −0.33 | 0.19 | 0.12 | 0.67 |
| (3.40) | (3.59) | (4.73) | (3.36) | (3.38) | (1.31) | |
| Seven COVID-19 policy measures with dynamic effects | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes |
| Observations | 1971 | 1971 | 1971 | 1971 | 1971 | 1961 |
| Adjusted R-squared | 0.828 | 0.632 | 0.525 | 0.857 | 0.755 | 0.807 |
| Effect of COVID-19 cases and mortality on human mobility: added quadratic and cubic in calendar days regional trends, model (2) | ||||||
| Total COVID-19 cases: 1 | −2.10 | −3.90** | −2.09 | −3.13** | −2.55 | 1.10* |
| (1.64) | (1.63) | (2.08) | (1.53) | (1.68) | (0.55) | |
| Total COVID-19 cases: 2 | −3.69** | −7.48*** | −0.19 | −2.98* | −5.03** | 1.02 |
| (1.64) | (1.96) | (2.33) | (1.63) | (2.25) | (0.73) | |
| Total COVID-19 cases: 3 | −4.68* | −7.97*** | 0.60 | −3.84 | −7.04** | 1.69 |
| (2.70) | (2.97) | (3.29) | (2.33) | (2.99) | (1.09) | |
| Total COVID-19 cases: 4–5 | −4.42* | −9.21*** | 2.53 | −3.78 | −7.37** | 1.78* |
| (2.63) | (2.78) | (3.86) | (2.45) | (3.00) | (1.07) | |
| Total COVID-19 cases: 6–10 | −8.96*** | −13.14*** | 1.49 | −6.91** | −11.07*** | 2.42** |
| (3.34) | (3.18) | (4.45) | (2.81) | (3.36) | (1.18) | |
| Total COVID-19 cases: 11–19 | −5.01 | −9.06** | 4.16 | −3.50 | −6.97** | 1.20 |
| (3.52) | (3.48) | (4.91) | (2.97) | (3.48) | (1.28) | |
| Total COVID-19 cases: 20–29 | −8.20** | −12.86*** | 2.53 | −5.70 | −9.23** | 1.88 |
| (4.00) | (3.89) | (5.54) | (3.47) | (4.16) | (1.48) | |
| Total COVID-19 cases: 30–49 | −9.31** | −10.33** | 5.07 | −8.17** | −11.36** | 2.44 |
| (4.50) | (4.97) | (6.49) | (3.81) | (4.52) | (1.67) | |
| Total COVID-19 cases: 50–99 | −9.06** | −10.64** | 2.17 | −7.24* | −7.81* | 2.15 |
| (4.45) | (4.64) | (6.84) | (3.82) | (4.58) | (1.67) | |
| Total COVID-19 cases: | −14.50*** | −15.13*** | −1.80 | −11.29** | −11.12** | 3.76* |
| 100–199 | (4.95) | (4.93) | (7.08) | (4.41) | (5.23) | (1.89) |
| Total COVID-19 cases: >=200 | −14.45*** | −14.23** | −0.85 | −11.81** | −10.78* | 4.05* |
| (5.32) | (5.72) | (7.16) | (4.85) | (5.97) | (2.08) | |
| Total COVID-19 deaths: 1 | −1.94 | −0.54 | −1.62 | 0.01 | −0.06 | 0.40 |
| (2.02) | (1.94) | (1.83) | (1.91) | (1.97) | (0.78) | |
| Total COVID-19 deaths: 2 | −4.67* | −4.35 | −3.17 | −3.19 | −3.67 | 2.05* |
| (2.56) | (3.00) | (3.69) | (2.35) | (2.79) | (1.08) | |
| Total COVID-19 deaths: 3 | −2.12 | −1.32 | −3.02 | −1.41 | 0.88 | 0.70 |
| (2.91) | (2.97) | (3.30) | (2.70) | (2.81) | (1.02) | |
| Total COVID-19 deaths: 4–5 | −4.97 | −5.11 | −2.73 | −4.50 | −4.56 | 2.19* |
| (3.56) | (3.40) | (3.85) | (3.24) | (3.07) | (1.20) | |
| Total COVID-19 deaths: >=6 | −0.14 | 1.93 | −0.97 | −1.30 | −0.92 | 1.22 |
| (3.25) | (3.49) | (4.86) | (3.21) | (3.24) | (1.25) | |
| Seven COVID-19 policy measures with dynamic effects and interactions with the stage of the epidemic | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes |
| Observations | 1971 | 1971 | 1971 | 1971 | 1971 | 1961 |
| Adjusted R-squared | 0.830 | 0.637 | 0.523 | 0.859 | 0.755 | 0.808 |
| Effect of COVID-19 cases and mortality on human mobility: added quadratic and cubic in calendar days regional trends, model (3) | ||||||
| Total COVID-19 cases: 1 | −1.77 | −5.18*** | −2.28 | −2.29* | −2.12 | 0.89* |
| (1.43) | (1.53) | (2.00) | (1.37) | (1.62) | (0.52) | |
| Total COVID-19 cases: 2 | −0.64 | −5.12*** | −0.36 | −0.51 | −2.70 | 0.26 |
| (1.39) | (1.67) | (2.10) | (1.42) | (1.90) | (0.52) | |
| Total COVID-19 cases: 3 | −0.99 | −5.16* | 0.97 | −1.04 | −4.32 | 0.68 |
| (2.29) | (2.66) | (2.75) | (2.19) | (2.67) | (0.90) | |
| Total COVID-19 cases: 4–5 | −2.11 | −6.63*** | 0.88 | −2.70 | −5.31** | 1.37 |
| (2.23) | (2.36) | (3.16) | (2.23) | (2.58) | (0.84) | |
| Total COVID-19 cases: 6–10 | −4.40 | −8.77*** | −0.05 | −3.67 | −6.14** | 1.19 |
| (2.64) | (2.80) | (3.05) | (2.44) | (2.94) | (0.96) | |
| Total COVID-19 cases: 11–19 | −4.62 | −7.02** | 0.06 | −3.60 | −5.34* | 0.80 |
| (3.07) | (3.20) | (3.41) | (2.71) | (3.02) | (1.07) | |
| Total COVID-19 cases: 20–29 | −8.44** | −11.50*** | −2.27 | −6.36* | −7.64** | 1.67 |
| (3.58) | (3.81) | (4.00) | (3.19) | (3.63) | (1.28) | |
| Total COVID-19 cases: 30–49 | −8.36** | −9.03* | −1.54 | −7.87** | −8.85** | 1.97 |
| (3.85) | (4.71) | (4.35) | (3.58) | (3.77) | (1.42) | |
| Total COVID-19 cases: 50–99 | −8.62** | −10.00** | −2.72 | −8.00** | −5.84 | 1.44 |
| (3.87) | (4.42) | (4.55) | (3.54) | (3.75) | (1.41) | |
| Total COVID-19 cases: | −11.57** | −12.15** | −5.44 | −9.66** | −7.64* | 2.10 |
| 100–199 | (4.53) | (5.13) | (5.42) | (3.98) | (4.46) | (1.74) |
| Total COVID-19 cases: >=200 | −11.19** | −11.20* | −4.73 | −9.88** | −5.98 | 2.01 |
| (4.96) | (5.83) | (5.77) | (4.19) | (4.98) | (1.92) | |
| Total COVID-19 deaths: 1 | −1.96 | −0.68 | −1.81 | 0.65 | 0.33 | 0.30 |
| (1.93) | (1.98) | (1.87) | (1.77) | (1.87) | (0.75) | |
| Total COVID-19 deaths: 2 | −6.02** | −6.93* | −3.95 | −3.70 | −4.81 | 2.38** |
| (2.66) | (3.64) | (3.74) | (2.44) | (2.91) | (1.17) | |
| Total COVID-19 deaths: 3 | −1.57 | −1.89 | −2.58 | −0.43 | 1.25 | 0.47 |
| (2.73) | (2.95) | (3.19) | (2.38) | (2.71) | (0.90) | |
| Total COVID-19 deaths: 4–5 | −3.86 | −4.35 | −1.26 | −3.48 | −4.31 | 1.84 |
| (3.73) | (3.81) | (3.84) | (3.35) | (3.41) | (1.22) | |
| Total COVID-19 deaths: >=6 | 1.00 | 2.32 | 0.02 | −0.90 | −0.90 | 1.37 |
| (3.41) | (3.93) | (5.03) | (3.12) | (3.33) | (1.16) | |
| Seven COVID-19 policies disaggregated by stringency levels | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes |
| Observations | 1909 | 1909 | 1909 | 1909 | 1909 | 1899 |
| Adjusted R-squared | 0.835 | 0.625 | 0.549 | 0.862 | 0.765 | 0.817 |
All models include country fixed effects, cubic polynomial in ambient temperature, days of the week fixed effects, regional cubic polynomial trends in days from the first COVID-19 case and region-specific quadratic and cubic calendar days terms.
Standard errors clustered at the country level are in parentheses.
Asterisks denote statistical significance: * p<0.10, ** p<0.05, *** p<0.01.