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. 2021 Feb;27(2):452–462. doi: 10.3201/eid2702.203412

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This is a publication of the U.S. Government. This publication is in the public domain and is therefore without copyright. All text from this work may be reprinted freely. Use of these materials should be properly cited.

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Modified susceptible-exposed-infectious-recovered (SEIR) model used to estimate the course of the first epidemic wave of coronavirus disease, Greece. Cases are classified into susceptible (S), exposed (E), infectious (I, which is divided into 3 conditions: I_pre, before developing symptoms, I_symp for clinically ill, or I_asymp for true asymptomatic), and recovered (R). We assumed that a proportion (p) of exposed cases will develop symptoms and that infectiousness can occur before the onset of symptoms. β is the rate at which persons become infected and move to E; exposed individuals become infectious at a rate σ and presymptomatic infectious cases develop symptoms at a rate σ_s; γ_asymp is the rate of recovery for asymptomatic persons; γ_s is the rate of recovery for symptomatic persons.