Table 4:

RDD estimates-Effect of the referral letter on overall health status

Specifications	Effects	Std. errors	P-values	OB-	OB+	NT-	N+
A. Change in standardized SF12 physical score 2013–17
Linear	0.529	0.323	0.101	21.29	13.49	273	85
Linear with controls	0.510	0.311	0.101	21.98	13.63	273	85
B. Change in standardized SF12 mental score 2013-17
Linear	0.511*	0.284	0.072	19.04	23.00	227	121
Linear with controls	0.568**	0.279	0.042	19.46	22.21	227	119
C. Change in 5-year survival expectation
Linear	−0.089	0.096	0.352	21.04	26.82	260	124
Linear with controls	−0.016	0.097	0.872	17.91	25.55	189	121

Note: The table shows estimates of the effect of receiving a referral card in 2013 on health in 2017 using a regression discontinuity design. SF12 subjective physical and mental health scores are constructed using twelve questions about general health status, mobility and ability to perform daily activities as well as emotional health. 5-year survival expectation is the subjective probability of survival in 5 years elicited using a methodology developed by Delavande and Kohler (2009). All these specification use triangular weights and first order local polynomials. OB- and OB+ represent the optimal bandwidths below and above the cutoffs, respectively. N- and N+ represent the number of observations included in the optimal bandwidths below and above the cutoffs, respectively. We use a Mean Square Error (MSE) optimal bandwidth selector. Specifications with controls includes a sex dummy, age and region dummies.

^*p < 0.1,

^**p < 0.05,

^***p < 0.01.