Table 2.

AF risk score performance for 5-year incident AF, stroke, and heart failure.

	Score
	CHA2DS2-VASc	C2HEST	CHARGE-AF	EHR-AF
AF*
Hazard ratio per SD increase (95% CI)	1.85 (1.84–1.86)	1.88 (1.88–1.89)	2.87 (2.85–2.89)	2.87 (2.86–2.89)
AIC†	4,473,906	4,458,257	4,394,587	4,390,568
Wald χ2	88,782, p<0.01	113,049, p<0.01	142,925, p<0.01	152,686, p<0.01
R2 (95% CI)	0.039 (0.038–0.039)	0.039 (0.039–0.040)	0.065 (0.064–0.065)	0.065 (0.064–0.065)
c-index (95% CI)	0.720 (0.719–0.722)	0.683 (0.682–0.684)	0.806 (0.805–0.807)	0.808 (0.807–0.809)
Calibration slope (95% CI)	0.398 (0.295–0.400)	0.455 (0.453–0.458)	0.821 (0.816–0.825)	1.002 (0.997–1.007)
Stroke‡
Hazard ratio per SD increase (95% CI)	1.76 (1.76–1.77)	1.61 (1.60–1.61)	1.92 (1.91–1.93)	1.84 (1.83–1.85)
AIC†	5,550,757	5,562,546	5,541,413	5,551,439
Wald χ2	73,374, p<0.01	68,772, p<0.01	77,083, p<0.01	68,101, p<0.01
R2 (95% CI)	0.022 (0.022–0.022)	0.018 (0.018–0.019)	0.025 (0.025–0.025)	0.022 (0.021–0.022)
c-index (95% CI)	0.686 (0.684–0.687)	0.670 (0.669–0.672)	0.710 (0.709–0.711)	0.700 (0.699–0.702)
Heart failure§
Hazard ratio per SD increase (95% CI)	1.91 (1.91–1.92)	1.94 (1.93–1.94)	2.51 (2.50–2.52)	2.58 (2.57–2.59)
AIC†	6,687,160	6,678,595	6,638,481	6,628,574
Wald χ2	148,962, p<0.01	156,206, p<0.01	161,868, p<0.01	173,488, p<0.01
R2 (95% CI)	0.037 (0.036–0.037)	0.039 (0.039–0.040)	0.050 (0.050–0.051)	0.053 (0.053–0.054)
c-index (95% CI)	0.730 (0.729–0.732)	0.733 (0.732–0.734)	0.770 (0.769–0.771)	0.775 (0.774–0.776)

^*N events=153,151, N total=4,508,180, median follow-up, years (Q1,Q3): 3.1 (1.1,5.0)

^†Akaike Information Criterion (AIC), a penalized likelihood metric. Lower values suggest better model fit while accounting for model complexity.

^‡N events=190,049, N total=4,282,764, median follow-up, years (Q1,Q3): 3.1 (1.1,5.0)

^§N events=230,187, N total=4,342,308, median follow-up, years (Q1,Q3): 3.1 (1.1,5.0)