Table 1.
Input parameters used in the model and their sampling distribution for the probabilistic sensitivity analysis.
| Parameter | Mean (SE or 95% CI) | Distribution | Source |
|---|---|---|---|
| Probability of infection with Mask (SM_Reg_Inf) | 0.046 (0.221) | Beta | (Offeddu, Yung, Low, & Tam, 2017)13 |
| Probability of infection with Respirator (fit-tested) (RF_reg_Inf) | 0.043 (0.069) | Beta | (Offeddu et al., 2017)13 |
| Probability of infection with Respirator (no fit-tested) (RNF_reg_Inf) | 0.112 (0.345) | Beta | (MacIntyre et al., 2011)15 |
| Probability of infection with Hand hygiene (HH_Inf) | 0.170 (0.111) | Beta | (Saunders-Hastings, Crispo, Sikora, & Krewski, 2017)14 |
| Probablility of infection with Surgical mask and hand hygiene | 0.030 | Beta | (Wong, Cowling, & Aiello, 2014)17 |
| Baseline Transitional Probabilities | |||
| Stay Normal (P_N) | 0.999 | Beta | 1-(P_N_Q) |
| Normal to Quarantine (P_N_Q) | 4.13E−06 | Beta | https://www.worldometers.info/(last accessed on March 12, 2020) |
| Stay Quarantine (P_Q) | 0.976 | Beta | 1-(P_Q_M + P_Q_N) |
| Stay Mild (P_M) | 0.019 | Beta | (Wu & McGoogan, 2020)24 |
| Stay Severe (P_S) | 0.989 | Beta | 1-(P_S_C + P_S_D + P_S_R) |
| Stay Critical (P_C) | 0.001 | Beta | (Wu & McGoogan, 2020)24 |
| Stay Recovery (P_R) | 0.006 | Beta | https://www.worldometers.info/(last accessed on March 12, 2020) |
| Normal-Quarantine (P_N_Q) | 4.12568E-06 | Beta | https://www.worldometers.info/(last accessed on March 12, 2020) |
| Quarantine-Normal (P_Q_N) | 0.010 | Beta | https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/(as on March 12, 2020) |
| Quarantine-Mild (P_Q_M) | 0.015 | Beta | (Wu & McGoogan, 2020)24 |
| Mild-Severe (P_M_S) | 0.005 | Beta | (Wu & McGoogan, 2020)24 |
| Severe-Critical (P_S_C) | 0.006 | Beta | (Wu & McGoogan, 2020)24 |
| Severe-Death (P_S_D) | 0.002 | Beta | (Organization, 2020)17 |
| Critical-Death (P_C_D) | 0.012 | Beta | (Wu & McGoogan, 2020)24 |
| Severe-Recovery (P_S_R) | 0.004 | Beta | (Organization, 2020)17 |
| Critical-Recovery (P_C_R) | 0.987 | Beta | 1-(P_C_D + P_C) |
| Utility Parameters | |||
| Normal (u_normal) | 1 | ||
| Quarantine (u_quarantine) | 1 | Normal | Assumed |
| Mild (u_mild) | 0.77 (0.51–0.83) | Normal | (Brown et al., 2017)19 |
| Severe (u_sev) | 0.29 | Normal | (van Hoek, Underwood, Jit, Miller, & Edmunds, 2011)20 |
| Critical (u_crit) | −0.283 | Normal | (Edwards, Wordsworth, & Clarke, 2012)21 |
| Cost Parameters Direct Medical Costs (DMC), All costs in INR |
|||
| Cost of Quarantine (c_quarantine) | 5317.30 | (Mubayi, Zaleta, Martcheva, & Castillo-Chavez, 2010)25 | |
| Cost of Isolation (c_isolation) | 12878.42 | (AlRuthia et al., 2019)23 | |
| Cost of Paracetamol (Oral) | 1.04 | (India, 2020)22 | |
| Cost per outpatient | 774.62 | (India, 2020)22 | |
| Cost of Mild disease (cost of paracetamol (oral) + outpatient + isolation) (per person per day) (c_mild) | 13657.20 | (AlRuthia et al., 2019; India, 2020)22,23 | |
| Cost of severe disease (c_sev) (per person per day) | 158446.90 | (AlRuthia et al., 2019)23 | |
| Cost of critical disease (c_crit) (per person per day) | 207398.64 | (AlRuthia et al., 2019)23 | |
| Cost of surgical mask (3 nos per person per day) (c_Mask) | 75 | (Indiamart, 2020)26 | |
| Cost of N95 respirator (2 nos per person per day) (c_Resp 95) | 200 | (Indiamart, 2020)26 | |
| Cost of fit-test (per test)) (c_fit test) | 207.20 | (Indiamart, 2020)26 | |
| Cost of Hand hygiene (per person per day) (c_HH) | 8.04 | (Ahmed, 2007)27 | |
| Cost of COVID-19 testing (per person per test) (c_testing) | 4000 | Expert Opinion (National Institute of Virology, Pune) | |