Table 3. Sensitivity Analysis.
estimated
annual risk (percentile) |
||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
pathogen | fixed parameter | fixed Value | units | 10th (%) | 50th (%) | 90th (%) |
G. duodenalis | soil ingestion | 10 | mg/day | 2.7 | 4.4 | 8.1 |
100 | 24 | 36 | 57 | |||
1000 | 93 | 99 | >99 | |||
gene copy density | 10 | gene copies/gram soil | 2.6 | 3.7 | 5.3 | |
100 | 23 | 32 | 43 | |||
1000 | 92 | 98 | >99 | |||
viability | 0.01% | % viable cysts | 0.51 | 0.65 | 0.92 | |
0.10% | 5.0 | 6.4 | 8.8 | |||
1% | 40 | 48 | 60 | |||
10% | >99 | >99 | >99 | |||
dose–response parameter k | 0.00995 | unitless | 31 | 46 | 78 | |
0.0199 | 53 | 71 | 95 | |||
0.0398 | 78 | 92 | >99 | |||
Shigella/EIEC | soil ingestion | 10 | mg/day | 1.2 | 1.9 | 3.3 |
100 | 11 | 17 | 27 | |||
1000 | 65 | 78 | 88 | |||
gene copy density | 10 | gene copies/gram soil | 0.60 | 0.89 | 1.3 | |
100 | 5.8 | 8.4 | 12 | |||
1000 | 43 | 55 | 66 | |||
viability | 0.01% | % viable CFUs | 0.22 | 0.29 | 0.43 | |
0.10% | 2.2 | 2.8 | 4.1 | |||
1% | 20 | 24 | 32 | |||
10% | 87 | 91 | 95 | |||
dose–response parameter N50 | 740 | CFUs | 42 | 56 | 72 | |
1480 | 25 | 35 | 50 | |||
2960 | 13 | 20 | 31 |
Results from sensitivity analysis that held individual parameters constant as part of the stochastic QMRA model.