Fig. 12.

Comparisons of OLS and ARMA(1,1) in effect estimate and uncertainty. The effect estimates (left) and their standard errors (right) are shown for total $2\times 11\times {\sum }_{s=1}^{57}{\sum }_{i=1}^2{\sum }_{j=1}^2{T}_{ijs}=200640$ trial-level effects among the two cues and four tasks. The theoretical unbiasedness of OLS estimates can be verified by the roughly equal number of data points on the two sides of the diagonal line (dotted red). However, the instability of OLS estimation is shown by the fat cloud surrounding the diagonal line: slightly overestimation (or underestimation) of OLS was shown by 52.7% (or 45.5%) of data points above (or below) the x-axis. The precision inflation of OLS can be assessed by the proportion of data points (97.5%) above the dotted red line.