Table 2.

Expert interpretation of evidence from the statistical associations of each NPI with reductions in R_t

Evidence strength	Effect estimates	Temporal cluster
Strong	Selected and significant with intended effect signs (i.e. negative) regardless of model specifications (i.e. variable selection criteria, temporal lags, and time-series lengths).	Not in a temporal cluster with any NPI with significantly positive effect estimates.
Moderate	Selected and significant with intended effect sign (i.e. negative) in two of three model specification dimensions (i.e. variable selection criteria, temporal lags, and time-series lengths), and non-selected or non-significant in the remaining dimension.*
Weak	Not strong or moderate

*For the moderate category, all the model specifications that were non-significant or non-selected were examined to see if they had a value in common across one of the three criteria, e.g. all of them had a lag of 10 days. Significance was assessed using ⍺ = 0.05