Table 2.
Diabetes incidence rates and OR (95% CI) for diabetes according to possible risk factors.
| People at-risk (n) | New DM cases (n) | Person-year (n) | Incidence rate/1000 person-years (95%CI) | OR (95% CI) | p-value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Whole cohort | 474 | 22 | 3356 | 6.56 (4.11–9.93) | _ | _ |
| Sex | ||||||
| Women | 282 | 12 | 1997 | 6.01 (3.11–10.50) | 1 | |
| Men | 192 | 10 | 1359 | 7.36 (3.53–13.53) | 1.25 (0.53–2.89) | 0.611 |
| Age (years) | ||||||
| 18–45 | 114 | 1 | 807 | 1.24 (0.03–6.90) | 1 | |
| 46–60 | 150 | 4 | 1062 | 3.77 (1.03–9.64) | 2.32 (0.42–23.41) | 0.348 |
| 61–75 | 150 | 12 | 1062 | 11.30 (5.84–19.74) | 6.83 (1.61–63.36) | 0.006 |
| ≥ 76 | 60 | 5 | 425 | 11.77 (3.82–27.47) | 7.5 (1.45–74.4) | 0.015 |
| BMI (Kg/m2) | ||||||
| < 25 | 164 | 4 | 1161 | 3.44 (0.94–8.82) | 1 | |
| 25–30 | 207 | 7 | 1466 | 4.78 (1.92–9.84) | 1.33 (0.42–4.78) | 0.631 |
| ≥ 30 | 100 | 10 | 708 | 14.12 (6.77–25.98) | 4.14 (1.40–14.33) | 0.010 |
| Abdominal obesity (WC) | ||||||
| No | 155 | 4 | 1097 | 3.64 (0.99–9.33) | 1 | |
| Yes | 232 | 16 | 1643 | 9.74 (5.57–15.82) | 2.57 (0.96–8.44) | 0.062 |
| Abdominal obesity (WHR) | ||||||
| No | 270 | 6 | 1912 | 3.14 (1.15–6.83) | 1 | |
| Yes | 117 | 14 | 828 | 16.90 (9.24–28.36) | 5.7 (2.28–15.84) | < 0.001 |
| Hypertension | ||||||
| No | 217 | 5 | 1536 | 3.25 (1.06–7.59) | 1 | |
| Yes | 185 | 16 | 1310 | 12.22 (6.98–19.84) | 3.76 (1.49–11.10) | 0.005 |
| High triglycerides level | ||||||
| No | 330 | 10 | 2336 | 4.28 (2.05–7.87) | 1 | |
| Yes | 56 | 10 | 396 | 25.22 (12.09–46.38) | 6.89 (2.75–17.32) | < 0.001 |
| Low HDL-cholesterol | ||||||
| No | 273 | 3 | 1933 | 1.55 (0.32–4.54) | 1 | |
| Yes | 126 | 18 | 892 | 20.18 (11.96–31.89) | 13.18 (4.60–50.70) | < 0.001 |
| High LDL-cholesterol | ||||||
| No | 252 | 5 | 1784 | 2.80 (0.91–6.54) | 1 | |
| Yes | 147 | 16 | 1041 | 15.37 (8.79–24.97) | 5.65 (2.22–16.69) | < 0.001 |
| Glucose at baseline | ||||||
| NFG and/or NGT | 415 | 10 | 2938 | 3.40 (1.63–6.26) | 1 | |
| Isolated IGT | 37 | 6 | 262 | 22.90 (8.41–49.85) | 7.97 (2.67–22.29) | < 0.001 |
| Isolated IFG | 19 | 4 | 135 | 29.74 (8.10–76.13) | 11.21 (3.04–36.41) | < 0.001 |
| IFG and IGT | 3 | 2 | 21 | 94.16 (11.4–340.15) | 64.37 (7.89–750.91) | < 0.001 |
| Insulin resistance (HOMA-IR index) | ||||||
| No | 279 | 5 | 1975 | 2.53 (0.82–5.91) | 1 | |
| Yes | 106 | 15 | 750 | 19.99 (11.19–32.97) | 8.45 (3.28–25.24) | < 0.001 |
| Family history of diabetes | ||||||
| No | 192 | 5 | 1359 | 3.68 (1.19–8.58) | 1 | |
| Yes | 191 | 15 | 1352 | 11.09 (6.21–18.30) | 2.99 (1.17–8.89) | 0.021 |
| Education level (primary or lower) | ||||||
| No | 273 | 8 | 1933 | 4.14 (1.79–8.16) | 1 | |
| Yes | 114 | 12 | 807 | 14.87 (7.68–25.97) | 3.81 (1.56–9.72) | 0.003 |
| Regular exercise (at least once a week) | ||||||
| Yes | 217 | 9 | 1536 | 5.86 (2.68–11.12) | 1 | |
| No | 170 | 11 | 1204 | 9.14 (4.56–16.35) | 1.58 (0.65–3.92) | 0.307 |
| Smoker (> 1cigarette/day) | ||||||
| Non-smoker | 159 | 8 | 1126 | 7.11 (3.07–14.00) | 1 | |
| Ex-smoker | 163 | 10 | 1154 | 8.67 (4.16–15.94) | 1.22 (0.48–3.18) | 0.676 |
| Smoker | 65 | 2 | 460 | 4.35 (0.53–15.70) | 0.70 (0.13–2.63) | 0.620 |
People at risk were those without diabetes in the prevalence study (2010–2012). Family history of diabetes defined as 1st or 2nd degree relatives with diabetes. Definitions of the rest of cardiovascular risk factors are detailed in methods. OR (95%CI) were calculated for each variable by univariate binomial logistic regression analyses.