Table 2:
Association of cumulative systolic blood pressure level (continuous scale) with hazards of cardiovascular disease (per 130 mm Hg x year)*
| Hazards of cardiovascular disease | Model A | Model B† | Model C‡ |
|---|---|---|---|
| Unadjusted | Adjusted, not including index SBP |
Adjusted, Including index SBP | |
| Hazard ratio (95% CI) for Any CVD§,∥,¶ | |||
| Cum10ySBP | 1.43 (1.38-1.48) | 1.35 (1.30-1.40) | 1.28 (1.20-1.36) |
| CumSBP1-5y | 1.37 (1.15-1.63) | 1.29 (1.08-1.55) | 1.37 (1.14-1.66) |
| CumSBP6-10y | 1.50 (1.26-1.78) | 1.41 (1.18-1.68) | 1.16 (0.91-1.48) |
| Hazard ratio (95% CI) for CHD§,∥,# | |||
| Cum10ySBP | 1.41 (1.36-1.47) | 1.35 (1.28-1.42) | 1.29 (1.19-1.40) |
| CumSBP1-5y | 1.42 (1.13-1.77) | 1.45 (1.15-1.82) | 1.54 (1.20-1.96) |
| CumSBP6-10y | 1.41 (1.13-1.77) | 1.26 (1.00-1.59) | 1.02 (0.74-1.42) |
| Hazard ratio (95% CI) for Stroke§,∥,** | |||
| Cum10ySBP | 1.42 (1.34-1.49) | 1.39 (1.31-1.47) | 1.33 (1.20-1.47) |
| CumSBP1-5y | 1.24 (0.99-1.65) | 1.24 (0.93-1.67) | 1.28 (0.95-1.73) |
| CumSBP6-10y | 1.62 (1.22-2.2) | 1.54 (1.16-2.05) | 1.41 (0.97-2.04) |
| Hazard ratio (95% CI) for CHF§,∥,‡‡ | |||
| Cum10ySBP | 1.38 (1.31-1.44) | 1.23 (1.16-1.30) | 1.12 (1.02-1.23) |
| CumSBP1-5y | 1.06 (0.82-1.38) | 0.92 (0.70-1.20) | 0.98 (0.74-1.29) |
| CumSBP6-10y | 1.79 (1.37-2.33) | 1.63 (1.25-2.11) | 1.34 (0.94-1.92) |
| Hazard ratio (95% CI) for all-cause mortality‡‡,∥,§§ | |||
| Cum10ySBP | 1.29 (1.25-1.34) | 1.25 (1.20-1.30) | 1.21 (1.14-1.29) |
| CumSBP1-5y | 1.24 (1.07-1.45) | 1.22 (1.04-1.44) | 1.25 (1.06-1.48) |
| CumSBP6-10y | 1.34 (1.15-1.56) | 1.27 (1.09-1.48) | 1.16 (0.95-1.42) |
Abbreviations: SBP, Systolic blood pressure; CVD, cardiovascular disease; CHD, coronary heart disease; CHF, congestive heart failure; Cum10ySBP, cumulative systolic blood pressure for the exposure period, years 1-10; CumSBP1-5y, cumulative systolic blood pressure for the early exposure period, years 1-5; CumSBP6-10y, cumulative systolic blood pressure for the proximal exposure period, years 6-10
All HR presented are per 130 mmHg x yr change
Model adjusted for age, sex, race, education, BMI, smoking status, diabetes, total cholesterol level, and use of hypertensive medications
Model adjusted for age, sex, race, education, BMI, smoking status, diabetes, total cholesterol level, use of hypertensive medications, and index SBP
Fine & Gray’s subdistribution method was used to account for competing risk
CumSBP1-5y and CumSBP6-10y were included simultaneously in same model. No multicollinearity between these two variables was observed (VIFs: <6.8)
n (%) of any CVD events: 1958 (17.0)
n (%) of CHD events = 1058 (9.2%)
n (%) of stroke events = 697 (6.1%)
n (%) of CHF events = 759 (6.6%)
Cox proportional hazards method was used for the association of cumulative BP with all-cause mortality
n (%) of all-cause mortality events = 2624 (22.8%)