Table 1.
Number and percentage of people who die with palliative care (PC) needs in Scotland based on different estimation and projection methods
| Projection method |
Description | 2007 No. of deaths with PC need (total deaths 55 984) |
2007 % of all deaths with PC need |
2017 No. of deaths with PC need (total deaths 57 870) |
2017 % of all deaths with PC need |
2030 No. of deaths with PC need (projected deaths 60 310) |
2030 % of all deaths with PC need |
2040 No. of projected deaths with PC needs (projected deaths 65 756) |
2040 % of all projected deaths with PC need |
| 1 | 75% of all deaths | 41 988 | 75% | 43 403 | 75% | 45 233 | 75% | 49 317 | 75% |
| 2A | ICD-10 codes associated with underlying cause of death only, assuming proportion of palliative care needs remains constant | 41 310 | 74% | 42 816 | 74% | 44 912 | 74% | 48 869 | 74% |
| 2B | ICD-10 codes associated with underlying cause of death only, assuming an annual change based on annual change 2007 to 2017 | 41 310 | 74% | 42 816 | 74% | 45 256 | 75% | 50 084 | 76% |
| 3 | ICD codes associated with underlying OR contributory cause of death assuming an annual change based on annual change 2007 to 2017 | 49 476 | 88% | 52 148 | 90% | 56 033 | 93% | 62 757 | 95% |
ICD-10, International Classification of Disease - 10th Revision.