Fig. 1. Wintertime outbreaks in New York City.

Estimated and projected R₀ values (top plot) assuming a 35% and b 15% reduction in R₀ due to NPIs. Corresponding time series show the simulated outbreaks in the climate (blue) or constant (black/dashed) scenarios, with middle row plots assuming a 10% reporting rate and bottom row plots assuming a 3% reporting rate. Corresponding susceptible time series are shown in orange (susceptibles = S/population = N). Case data from New York City are shown in gray. Surface plots (top) show the peak wintertime proportion infected (infected = I/population = N) in the scenarios with c the constant R₀ and d the climate-driven R₀. e shows the difference between the climate and constant R₀ scenario. The timing of peak incidence in years from July is shown for the f constant and g climate scenarios. The difference between climate and constant scenario is shown in h. Points in c–h show the scenarios is a, b. Dashed line shows estimated susceptibility in New York based on ref. ²⁴.