Table 1.
Average mean absolute error and standard deviation (in parentheses) of forecasting models (7 and 14 days ahead) for daily deaths caused by COVID-19 in 8 countries.
| Country | 7 days ahead | 14 days ahead | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AR-F | SAR-F | PER-F | AR-F | SAR-F | PER-F | |
| US | 774.49 (544.70) | 545.97 (447.31) | 545.06 (667.84) | 1049.07 (697.66) | 591.55 (454.22) | 613.66 (453.73) |
| UK | 206.08 (183.25) | 128.37 (115.20) | 137.89 (82.19) | 370.25 (242.63) | 174.77 (181.53) | 227.46 (129.86) |
| Australia | 1.48 (0.87) | 0.92 (0.69) | 0.97 (1.01) | 1.14 (0.68) | 0.94 (0.63) | 1.66 (1.35) |
| Canada | 74.61 (46.70) | 55.00 (34.39) | 33.89 (24.47) | 108.48 (50.75) | 82.36 (43.96) | 52.86 (35.79) |
| France | 354.49 (119.69) | 193.81 (120.62) | 151.54 (156.93) | 384.38 (177.43) | 245.85 (147.42) | 282.03 (243.91) |
| Italy | 207.21 (97.77) | 85.77 (54.34) | 85.69 (66.30) | 308.99 (134.86) | 162.03 (95.31) | 157.86 (86.09) |
| Greece | 1.76 (1.09) | 1.43 (0.96) | 1.97 (1.64) | 2.14 (1.23) | 1.40 (1.07) | 1.86 (1.78) |
| South Africa | 6.92 (5.85) | 7.33 (6.53) | 6.14 (5.58) | 9.14 (7.45) | 8.96 (7.25) | 7.68 (6.25) |
| Norm. mean | 0.294 (0.192) | 0.198 (0.161) | 0.187 (0.187) | 0.382 (0.241) | 0.253 (0.198) | 0.266 (0.215) |
The last row contains min-max normalised averages across countries, methods, and forecasting tasks to account for the different ranges in different countries. AR-F autoregressive forecasting using past deaths, SAR-F combined online search and autoregressive forecasting, PER-F persistence model.