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. 2021 Feb 8;11:3295. doi: 10.1038/s41598-021-81233-4

Table 2.

Regional predictors of fire.

Region code Region name Monthly cor. Interannual cor. Spatial cor. Burned area BA trend Anomaly cor. Score
rT rIA rS BA LT rAn P Vars Variables
NHAF Northern Hemisphere Africa 0.87 0.77 0.88 151.9 − 1.60 0.53 88.1 3 pr, cld, pop
SHAF Southern Hemisphere Africa 0.91 0.32 0.92 180.2 0.37 0.36 73.5 3 gppl1, ts, cld
SA South America 0.92 0.89 0.85 30.7 − 0.17 0.91 94.8 7 gpp, gppm1s, pr, ts, cld, pop, rdtot
SA 0.91 0.81 0.79 30.3 − 0.07 0.85 91.9 5 gpp, gppm1s, pr, ts, cld
SEAS South and Southeast Asia 0.89 0.68 0.87 11.8 − 0.19 0.77 87.7 8 gpp, gppm1, pr, ts, cld, vp, pop, rdtot
SEAS 0.88 0.64 0.89 12.0 − 0.22 0.73 86.0 6 gpp, gppm1, pr, ts, cld, pop
TCAM Temperate and Central America 0.77 0.84 0.74 6.3 − 0.01 0.84 90.7 5 gpp, gppl1, pr, ts, cld
TCAM 0.77 0.78 0.73 6.0 0.01 0.79 89.1 4 gpp, gppl1, pr, ts
BONA Boreal North America 0.83 0.56 0.67 3.3 0.00 0.57 81.2 6 gpp, gppl1, pr, ts, cld, vp
BONA 0.83 0.55 0.56 3.8 − 0.01 0.57 79.4 3 gpp, gppl1, pr
AUS Australia 0.86 0.91 0.91 50.2 0.21 0.92 95.1 6 gppm1s, gpp, gppl1, ts, cld, vp
AUS 0.86 0.90 0.88 50.5 0.03 0.90 94.6 3 gpp, gppl1, cld
CEAS Central Asia 0.70 0.72 0.79 16.2 − 0.18 0.55 85.5 4 gppl1, pr, cld, vp
BOAS Boreal Asia 0.65 0.59 0.82 9.5 0.01 0.62 82.2 4 gppm1, pr, ts, vp
EQAS Equatorial Asia 0.80 0.93 0.87 2.0 0.02 0.95 95.0 3 pr, ts, cld
EQAS 0.76 0.93 0.78 1.9 0.00 0.94 93.7 1 pr
EUME Europe and Middle East 0.83 0.34 0.67 2.6 0.00 0.35 70.7 2 pr, cld

Performance of the best and minimal models for each region with respect to each of the five performance measures described in Methods, along with the aggregate performance score. In some regions, the best model is the same as the minimal model. Also mentioned are the variables that form the inputs of the models. BA is Burned Area, and LT is long-term trend in spatially aggregated yearly timeseries. Variables are as follows: gppl1—cumulative GPP, gppm1—growing season GPP (northern hemisphere), gppm1s—growing season GPP (southern hemisphere), pr—precipitation, ts—temperature, cld—cloud cover, vp—vapour pressure, rdtot—total road network density, pop—population density. All models include vegetation type fractions, including cropland fraction. The model for NHAF uses yearly vegetation fractions, whereas rest of the models use a single snapshot.