Table 2. Incidence Rates and Adjusted Hazard Ratios (95% CIs) for Incident Total Diabetes, Incident Diagnosed Diabetes, and Mortality According to Prediabetes Status at Baseline in Older Adults, the ARIC Study (2011-2017).
| Prediabetes criterion | No. of events/participants | Incidence rate per 1000 person-years (95% CI) | HR (95% CI)a | sHR (95% CI)a,b |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Incident total diabetesc | ||||
| Normoglycemia (HbA1c <5.7%) | 45/1400 | 7.1 (5.3-9.5) | 1 [Reference] | 1 [Reference] |
| Prediabetes (HbA1c 5.7%-6.4%) | 111/1097 | 22.8 (18.9-27.5) | 3.16 (2.22-4.48) | 3.14 (2.21-4.45) |
| Normoglycemia (FG <100 mg/dL) | 31/1035 | 6.7 (4.7-9.5) | 1 [Reference] | 1 [Reference] |
| Prediabetes (FG 100-125 mg/dL) | 125/1462 | 19.0 (15.9-22.6) | 2.95 (1.98-4.38) | 3.02 (2.04-4.49) |
| Normoglycemia (HbA1c <5.7% and FG <100 mg/dL) | 7/672 | 2.3 (1.1-4.8) | 1 [Reference] | 1 [Reference] |
| Prediabetes (HbA1c 5.7%-6.4% or FG 100-125 mg/dL) | 149/1825 | 18.2 (15.5-21.4) | 8.12 (3.80-17.35) | 8.16 (3.82-17.44) |
| Normoglycemia (HbA1c <5.7% or FG <100 mg/dL) | 69/1763 | 8.7 (6.9-11.0) | 1 [Reference] | 1 [Reference] |
| Prediabetes (HbA1c 5.7%-6.4% and FG 100-125 mg/dL) | 87/734 | 26.5 (21.5-32.7) | 2.96 (2.16-4.07) | 3.01 (2.19-4.12) |
| Incident diagnosed diabetesd | ||||
| Normoglycemia (HbA1c <5.7%) | 40/1400 | 6.3 (4.6-8.6) | 1 [Reference] | 1 [Reference] |
| Prediabetes (HbA1c 5.7%-6.4%) | 78/1097 | 16.0 (12.8-20.0) | 2.53 (1.72-3.72) | 2.52 (1.71-3.71) |
| Normoglycemia (FG <100 mg/dL) | 27/1035 | 5.8 (4.0-8.5) | 1 [Reference] | 1 [Reference] |
| Prediabetes (FG 100-125 mg/dL) | 91/1462 | 13.8 (11.2-16.9) | 2.52 (1.64-3.89) | 2.58 (1.67-3.99) |
| Normoglycemia (HbA1c <5.7% and FG <100 mg/dL) | 7/672 | 2.3 (1.1-4.8) | 1 [Reference] | 1 [Reference] |
| Prediabetes (HbA1c 5.7%-6.4% or FG 100-125 mg/dL) | 111/1825 | 13.6 (11.3-16.4) | 6.22 (2.89-13.37) | 6.27 (2.92-13.47) |
| Normoglycemia (HbA1c <5.7% or FG <100 mg/dL) | 60/1763 | 7.6 (5.9-9.7) | 1 [Reference] | 1 [Reference] |
| Prediabetes (HbA1c 5.7%-6.4% and FG 100-125 mg/dL) | 58/734 | 17.7 (13.6-22.8) | 2.32 (1.61-3.34) | 2.35 (1.64-3.37) |
| All-cause mortality | ||||
| Normoglycemia (HbA1c <5.7%) | 227/1400 | 30.6 (26.9-34.9) | 1 [Reference] | NA |
| Prediabetes (HbA1c 5.7%-6.4%) | 207/1097 | 35.9 (31.3-41.1) | 1.07 (0.88-1.29) | NA |
| Normoglycemia (FG <100 mg/dL) | 198/1035 | 36.9 (32.1-42.4) | 1 [Reference] | NA |
| Prediabetes (FG 100-125 mg/dL) | 236/1462 | 30.2 (26.6-34.3) | 0.83 (0.68-1.00) | NA |
| Normoglycemia (HbA1c <5.7% and FG <100 mg/dL) | 117/672 | 33.3 (27.8-40.0) | 1 [Reference] | NA |
| Prediabetes (HbA1c 5.7%-6.4% or FG 100-125 mg/dL) | 317/1825 | 32.8 (29.4-36.6) | 0.94 (0.76-1.17) | NA |
| Normoglycemia (HbA1c <5.7% or FG <100 mg/dL) | 308/1763 | 33.2 (29.7-37.1) | 1 [Reference] | NA |
| Prediabetes (HbA1c 5.7%-6.4% and FG 100-125 mg/dL) | 126/734 | 32.2 (27.1-38.4) | 0.92 (0.75-1.13) | NA |
Abbreviations: ARIC, Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities; FG, fasting glucose; HbA1c, glycated hemoglobin; HR, hazard ratio; NA, not applicable; sHR, subhazard ratio.
a
Adjusted for age, sex, and race-center.
b
The sHRs incorporate competing risk of death.
c
Incident total diabetes was defined as a self-reported physician diagnosis of diabetes, glucose-lowering medication use, HbA1c level of 6.5% or higher, or FG level of 126 mg/dL or higher identified during semiannual follow-up calls or at visit 6 (2016-2017).
d
Incident diagnosed diabetes was defined as a self-reported physician diagnosis of diabetes or glucose-lowering medication use identified during semiannual follow-up calls or at visit 6 (2016-2017).