Table 20.

CAG‐NCN Consensus judgements and distribution of the experts for the combined impact of the quantified uncertainties affecting exposure (if resolved) on the MOET at the 99.9th percentile of exposure for the Italian adult population in 2016–2018. The impact is expressed as a multiplicative factor f to be applied to the Tier II median estimate (shown in Table 14). The bottom row of the table gives the parameters for the consensus distribution, which is shown graphically in Figure 5. For more explanation, see Table 19

	Experts’ exposure multiplicative factor (f)
Lower plausible bound	f = 1.5
Upper plausible bound	f = 10
Probability 1	P (f < 4) = 20%
Probability 2	P (f < 6) = 55%
Probability 3	P (f > 7) = 10%
Consensus distribution	Beta distribution with parameters alpha = 3.51 and beta = 3.91, scaled to the interval from 1.5 to 10 (the experts’ plausible bounds)