Fig. 4. Modeling approach to estimate the probability of a P. falciparum transmission event to mosquitoes using the pfcsp gene target.

A Distribution of the interval in days between all possible pairings (N = 159,285) of all infected participants and mosquito abdomens. Day 0 was set as the date of the mosquito infection, and therefore negative values indicate that the mosquito was collected prior to the participant infection. The light green area indicates those pairings in which the mosquito was collected within 7 days prior to or 14 days after the participant’s infection. Subsequent analysis was restricted to these pairings. B Distribution of the distance interval between all possible pairings of infected participants and mosquito abdomens. The light green area indicates those pairings within the same village and at a maximum distance of 3 km, to which subsequent analysis was restricted. Across these pairings, a probability function was applied (Fig. S7) to upweight pairings with shorter distance intervals. The peaks result from differences in distance across the three villages. C Distribution of the estimated probabilities of transmission as a function of the number of pfcsp haplotypes shared within the participant–mosquito pair. These probabilities were estimated by upweighting pairings which shared more haplotypes and which shared haplotypes that were rare across the entire study population. D Distributions of the final estimated probabilities of transmission events stratified by symptomatic status of the participant infection. Final probabilities were computed as the product of the individual probabilities based on the time interval, distance interval, and pfcsp haplotypes of each pairing.