Table 2.

Infection fatality ratio (IFR) and numbers of SARS-CoV-2 infections by age, sex, ethnicity.

Category	Population size (000s)	SARS-CoV-2 antibody prevalence % [95% CI]a	Confirmed COVID-19 deaths	Infection fatality ratio % [95% CI]b	Estimated number of infections (000s) [95% CI]
(a) IFR and total infections overall and by age and sex (excluding care home deaths)
Total	56,287	5.96 [5.70, 6.75]	30,180	0.90 [0.86, 0.94]	3362 [3217; 3507]
Sex
Male	27,828	6.17 [5.76, 6.59]	18,575	1.07 [1.00, 1.15]	1730 [1615; 1845]
Female	28,459	5.75 [5.42, 6.09]	11,600	0.71 [0.67, 0.75]	1634 [1540; 1728]
Age
15–44	21,335	7.20 [6.73, 7.66]	524	0.03 [0.03, 0.04]	1536 [1437; 1635]
45–64	14,406	6.18 [5.78, 6.58]	4657	0.52 [0.49, 0.55]	895 [837; 953]
65–74	5576	3.16 [2.67, 3.66]	5663	3.13 [2.65, 3.61]	181 [153; 209]
75+	4778	3.30 [2.53, 4.08]	19,330	11.64 [9.22, 14.06]	166 [131; 201]
(b) IFR and total infections by ethnicity, age and sex (including care home deathsc)
Female <65
White	19,624	5.53 [5.17, 5.88]	1252	0.12 [0.11, 0.12]	1086 [1017, 1154]
Asian	2057	11.03 [8.94. 13.12]	255	0.11 [0.09, 0.13]	227 [184, 270]
Black	951	17.76 [12.82,22.70]	206	0.12 [0.09, 0.16]	169 [122, 216]
Female 65+
White	4885	3.22 [2.56, 3.88]	18,315	10.44 [8.52, 12.36]	175 [143, 208]
Asian	130	5.60 [0, 12.64]	852	10.51 [1.10, 19.91]	8 [1, 15]
Black	66	10.44 [0, 24.68]	530	7.10 [0.50, 13.69]	7 [1, 14]
Male <65
White	19,694	5.75 [5.32, 6.19]	2071	0.18 [0.17, 0.20]	1135 [1050, 1221]
Asian	2091	13.72 [10.71, 16.74]	545	0.19 [0.15, 0.23]	287 [224, 351]
Black	888	18.43 [13.00, 23.86]	333	0.20 [0.14, 0.26]	164 [116, 212]
Male 65+
White	3875	2.68 [2.08, 3.29]	21,383	17.05 [13.84, 20.26]	125 [102, 149]
Asian	121	4.55 [0, 9.22]	1361	19.79 [3.92, 35.67]	7 [1, 12]
Black	55	7.60 [0, 19.48]	867	17.13 [2.93, 31.33]	5 [1, 9]

^aEstimates of prevalence adjusted for imperfect test sensitivity and specificity, and re-weighted to account for sample design and for variation in response rate (age, sex, ethnicity and deprivation) to be representative of the England population (18+ years).

^bInfection fatality ratios in (a) were calculated excluding care home residents and based on confirmed COVID-19 death counts obtained from Public Health England³⁸. Infection fatality ratios in (b) included deaths in care home residents up to 17 July 2020 obtained from Office for National Statistics^41,42.

^cDeaths by ethnicity only available including care home residents. The proportions of the population and COVID-19 deaths by ethnicity, age and sex were applied to the current total population of England and the total deaths with COVID-19 on the death certificate up to 17 July 2020. The data sources used are as follows: Population proportions by ethnicity⁴³; COVID deaths by ethnicity³⁸; 2011 population by ethnicity, age, sex⁴⁴; COVID deaths by ethnicity, age, sex⁴⁵.