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. Author manuscript; available in PMC: 2021 Mar 1.
Published in final edited form as: J Adolesc Health. 2020 Aug 11;68(3):488–496. doi: 10.1016/j.jadohealth.2020.06.041

Figure 4.

Figure 4.

HIV prevalence among 18-year-old adolescent sexual minority males (ASMM) over 10 years of pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) use with adherence and retention levels reported in the ATN113 trial and increased levels based on differences in the intervention and control arm of EPIC (scenario set 3). PrEP indications for this scenario are age 16–18 and having initiated anal intercourse; uptake ranged from 10% to 100%; adherence profile and retention is drawn from the ATN113 trial (see text). The difference in adherence and retention is drawn from the relative differences between the control and intervention arms of the EPIC study. Dark lines = means of 100 simulations from a given set of parameters; lighter areas = 95% credible interval across 100 simulations. (a) HIV prevalence among 18-year-old ASMM in the absence (red), presence (blue), and intervention base improvements in PrEP over the 10 years after rollout. Time scale on the x-axis reflects time relative to PrEP rollout; PrEP was available for adults for 3 years prior to rollout for adolescents. The decline in prevalence among 18-year-old adolescent sexual minority males in the absence of PrEP use by adolescents, shown in red, reflects the trickle-down effect of PrEP use among adults.