Table 2.
Scenario set 1: simulated HIV epidemic outcomes assuming pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) adherence and retention profiles among adolescent sexual minority males (ASMM) from EPIC
| Scenarios | Uptake | Incidence (95% SI) | NIA/100K person-years at risk (95% SI) |
PIA (95% SI) | PrEP coverage among all sexually active ASMM (95% SI) |
NNT (95% SI) | Prevalence among 18-year-old ASMM after 10 years (95% SI) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| No PrEP | NA | 1,191 (1,090, 1,276) | NA | NA | NA | 5.8 (4.3, 7.6) | |
| Control | .1 | 1,139 (1,042, 1,238) | 77 (−155, 318) | 4.0 (−9.2, 16.3) | 4.3 (4.2, 4.5) | 37 (−641, 232) | 5.3 (4.1, 6.4) |
| Intervention | 1,092 (996, 1,176) | 149 (−87, 376) | 7.9 (−5.2, 19.5) | 6.1 (5.8, 6.3) | 71 (−1,139, 341) | 5.0 (4.0, 6.2) | |
| Control | .25 | 1,046 (960, 1,144) | 219 (−13, 443) | 11.9 (−.8, 22.6) | 10.5 (10.3, 10.7) | 68 (38, 350) | 4.8 (3.8, 5.9) |
| Intervention | 977 (890, 1,080) | 322 (49, 563) | 17.6 (2.9, 29.8) | 14.5 (14.1, 14.8) | 95 (54, 208) | 4.5 (3.5, 5.5) | |
| Control | .5 | 934 (856, 1,016) | 388 (146, 580) | 21.3 (8.6, 30.3) | 19.9 (19.7, 20.2) | 76 (55, 172) | 4.3 (3.4, 5.2) |
| Intervention | 809 (736, 881) | 576 (369, 804) | 31.8 (22.1,41.7) | 26.5 (26.1, 26.7) | 96 (71, 138) | 3.8 (2.7, 4.7) | |
| Control | .75 | 828 (772, 893) | 548 (300, 771) | 30.1 (18.0, 39.7) | 28.3 (28.0, 28.5) | 78 (58, 122) | 3.8 (2.8, 4.7) |
| Intervention | 688 (626, 763) | 755 (504, 953) | 42.0 (30.6, 49.6) | 36.2 (35.9, 36.5) | 96 (79, 132) | 3.1 (2.1, 4.1) | |
| Control | 1 | 699 (613, 773) | 741 (542, 959) | 41.0 (32.7, 50.1) | 35.7 (35.5, 36.0) | 72 (56, 91) | 3.0 (2.1, 4.2) |
| Intervention | 587 (532, 643) | 907 (700, 1,087) | 50.5 (42.3, 56.9) | 44.1 (43.8, 44.3) | 94 (81, 116) | 2.6 (1.8, 3.5) |
NIA = number of infections averted; NNT = number needed to treat to avert a single infection; PIA = percent of infections averted; SI = simulation interval.