Table 3.
Scenario set 2: simulated HIV epidemic outcomes assuming pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) adherence and retention profiles among adolescent sexual minority males (ASMM) from the ATN113 trial with retention averaged across the study duration
| Scenarios | Uptake | Incidence (95% SI) | NIA/100K person-years at risk (95% SI) |
PIA (95% SI) | PrEP coverage among all sexually active ASMM (95% SI) |
NNT (95% SI) | Prevalence among 18-year-old ASMM after 10 years (95% SI) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| No PrEP | NA | 1,191 (1,090, 1,276) | NA | NA | NA | 5.8 (4.3, 7.6) | |
| Control | .1 | 1,153 (1,055, 1,252) | 57 (−183, 307) | 2.8 (−11.0, 15.8) | 4.5 (4.4, 4.7) | 40.2 (−267.2, 603.5) | 5.4 (4.2, 6.8) |
| Intervention | 1,141 (1,061, 1,220) | 74 (−189, 297) | 3.8 (−11.4, 15.4) | 4.5 (4.4, 4.7) | 48.8 (−410.3, 351.8) | 5.3 (4.2, 6.6) | |
| Control | .25 | 1,098 (999, 1,198) | 139 (−100, 382) | 7.4 (−5.8, 19.7) | 11.0 (10.8, 11.2) | 96.7 (−307.4, 610.8) | 5.1 (4.0, 6.3) |
| Intervention | 1,032 (951, 1,110) | 240 (−27, 460) | 13.0 (−1.6, 24.1) | 11.0 (10.9,11.2) | 69.9 (−250.4, 387.7) | 4.7 (3.7, 5.7) | |
| Control | .5 | 1,028 (928, 1,103) | 246 (−6, 437) | 13.4 (−.4, 23.1) | 20.7 (20.5, 21.0) | 128.8 (73.8, 446.8) | 4.8 (3.6, 5.9) |
| Intervention | 905 (825, 1,000) | 431 (198, 670) | 23.7 (12.2, 34.8) | 20.8 (20.6, 21.0) | 75.9 (52.1, 130.6) | 4.2 (2.9, 5.5) | |
| Control | .75 | 955 (858, 1,037) | 356.(100, 606) | 19.5 (6.0, 31.3) | 29.3 (29.1, 29.6) | 131 (77.1, 295.6) | 4.3 (3.0, 5.7) |
| Intervention | 800 (727, 877) | 590 (395,81) | 32.6 (23.9, 41.7) | 29.4 (29.2, 29.7) | 75.6 (59, 103.3) | 3.5 (2.6, 4.4) | |
| Control | 1 | 895 (819, 984) | 447 (222, 640) | 24.6 (13.3, 33.8) | 36.8 (36.5, 37.1) | 126.8 (92.6, 217.8) | 4.1 (3.1, 5.3) |
| Intervention | 716 (643, 789) | 715 (501, 911) | 39.6 (29.8, 48.2) | 36.9 (36.7, 37.2) | 78.1 (63.2, 104) | 3.2 (2.3, 4.1) |
NIA = number of infections averted; NNT = number needed to treat to avert a single infection; PIA = percent of infections averted; SI = simulation interval.