Table 4.
Scenario set 3: simulated HIV epidemic outcomes among adolescent sexual minority males (ASMM) assuming pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) adherence and retention averaged across the ATN113 study and relative improvements based on changes reported in EPIC
| Scenarios | Uptake | Incidence (95% SI) | NIA/100K person-years at risk (95% SI) |
PIA (95% SI) | PrEP coverage among all sexually active ASMM (95% SI) |
NNT (95% SI) | Prevalence among 18-year-old ASMM after 10 years (95% SI) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| No PrEP | NA | 1,191 (1,090, 1,276) | NA | NA | NA | 5.8 (4.3, 7.6) | |
| Control | .1 | 1,148 (1,073, 1,253) | 64 (−172, 263) | 3.3 (−10.2, 13.5) | 4.5 (4.4, 4.7) | 52 (−339, 537) | 5.2 (4, 6.3) |
| Intervention | 1,118 (1,011, 1,215) | 110 (−142, 369) | 5.7 (−8.5, 18.8) | 5.8 (5.6, 6.0) | 111 (−453, 826) | 5.2 (3.9, 6.5) | |
| Control | .25 | 1,079 (982, 1,175) | 169 (−134, 426) | 9.0 (−8.1, 22.2) | 11.0 (10.8, 11.2) | 93 (−181, 587) | 5.2 (4, 6.4) |
| Intervention | 1,024 (932, 1,116) | 252 (20, 500) | 13.7 (1.1, 25.9) | 13.8 (13.6, 14.0) | 109 (56,310) | 4.7 (3.6, 5.7) | |
| Control | .5 | 965 (896, 1,047) | 341 (52, 571) | 18.6 (3.2, 29.2) | 20.8 (20.5, 21.0) | 95 (61, 248) | 4.4 (3.2, 5.6) |
| Intervention | 885 (814, 959) | 461 (221, 688) | 25.4 (13.5, 35.4) | 25.4 (25.1, 25.7) | 112 (75, 178) | 3.9 (3, 5.1) | |
| Control | .75 | 883 (798, 966) | 464 (240, 656) | 25.6 (14.5, 34.9) | 29.3 (29.1, 29.6) | 97 (73, 150) | 4.0 (2.9, 5.4) |
| Intervention | 781 (681, 862) | 619 (405, 830) | 34.2 (23.7, 44.0) | 35.0 (34.7, 35.3) | 71 (56, 103) | 3.4 (2.4, 4.5) | |
| Control | 1 | 803 (736, 890) | 584 (355, 776) | 32.3 (21.7, 40.3) | 36.9 (36.6, 37.2) | 94 (75, 145) | 3.6 (2.6, 4.7) |
| Intervention | 702 (636, 761) | 736 (523, 924) | 40.8 (32.2, 48.4) | 42.8 (42.5, 43.1) | 68 (54,91) | 3.1 (2.1, 4.1) |
NIA = number of infections averted; NNT = number needed to treat to avert a single infection; PIA = percent of infections averted; SI = simulation interval.