Table 2.
Dynamic panel data regression of COVID-19 speed and 7-day persistence effect.
| Metropolitan area (number of counties) |
Wald χ2 test of regression significance (P value) |
Sargan χ2 test of model validity (P value) |
7-day persistence coefficient |
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|
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|
|
Base effect (P value) | Shift, October 9-15 (P value) | Shift, October 2-8 (P value) |
| 1. New York (n=23) | 193.68 (<.001) | 636.36 (.46) | 0.0536 (.50) | 0.0220 (.74) | 0.2035 (.002) |
| 2. Los Angeles (n=2) | 25.03 (<.001) | 49.87 (.60) | 0.3101 (<.001) | 0.0505 (.47) | 0.0459 (.53) |
| 3. Chicago (n=14) | 130.28 (<.001) | 418.07 (.27) | –0.0271 (.33) | 0.5085 (<.001) | 0.2238 (<.001) |
| 4. Dallas (n=11) | 48.67 (<.001) | 322.71 (.36) | 0.4104 (<.001) | –0.2602 (.003) | –0.3244 (.001) |
| 5. Houston (n=9) | 8.79 (.12) | 257.55 (.46) | 0.0951 (.08) | 0.1389 (.36) | 0.3367 (.09) |
| 6. Washington, DC (n=25) | 20.58 (.001) | 736.88 (.11) | 0.0250 (.55) | 0.1931 (<.001) | 0.0104 (.86) |
| 7. Miami (n=3) | 16.63 (.005) | 79.46 (.56) | 0.3279 (.04) | 0.1088 (.35) | –0.0096 (.93) |
| 8. Philadelphia (n=8) | 8.32 (.14) | 227.22 (.48) | 0.0609 (.46) | 0.1379 (.10) | –0.0097 (.90) |
| 9. Atlanta (n=28) | 46.85 (<.001) | 851.42 (.14) | 0.0929 (.02) | 0.0117 (.80) | –0.0144 (.75) |
| 10. Phoenix (n=2) | 8.22 (.15) | 50.58 (.57) | 0.0454 (.73) | 0.3060 (.07) | 0.2838 (.12) |
| 11. Boston (n=7) | 27.97 (<.001) | 196.40 (.52) | 0.0973 (.29) | 0.1853 (.04) | 0.0172 (.85) |
| 12. San Francisco (n=5) | 10.59 (.06) | 139.02 (.51) | 0.1751 (.054) | –0.1543 (.20) | –0.2584 (.09) |
| 13. Riverside (n=2) | 34.37 (<.001) | 47.07 (.70) | 0.6413 (<.001) | –0.3360 (.06) | –0.1599 (.35) |
| 14. Detroit (n=6) | 245.98 (<.001) | 189.22 (.14) | 0.5095 (.37) | 0.6095 (.45) | 0.1853 (.03) |
| 15. Seattle (n=3) | 24.02 (<.001) | 85.39 (.38) | 0.1948 (.45) | 0.6853 (.001) | 0.4182 (.03) |
| 16. Minneapolis (n=15) | 115.52 (<.001) | 531.86 (<.001) | 0.0300 (.55) | 0.8143 (<.001) | 0.1926 (.06) |
| 17. San Diego (n=1) | 2.58 (.77) | 24.75 (.42) | 0.1719 (.29) | 0.1003 (.45) | 0.1227 (.36) |
| 18. Tampa (n=4) | 7.18 (.21) | 113.02 (.43) | 0.3055 (.02) | 0.0307 (.77) | –0.0367 (.74) |
| 19. Denver (n=10) | 47.41 (<.001) | 268.99 (.74) | –0.0811 (.48) | 0.3725 (.001) | 0.3194 (.003) |
| 20. St Louis (n=15) | 7.40 (.19) | 443.33 (.32) | 0.1025 (.13) | 0.0855 (.37) | –0.1239 (.08) |
| 21. Baltimore (n=7) | 37.22 (<.001) | 212.36 (.23) | 0.1081 (.10) | 0.1774 (.01) | 0.2260 (.002) |
| 22. Charlotte (n=11) | 6.42 (.27) | 314.04 (.49) | 0.1578 (.08) | 0.0525 (.59) | –0.0748 (.39) |
| 23. Orlando (n=4) | 20.00 (.001) | 111.72 (.46) | 0.1970 (.08) | 0.0747 (.37) | 0.1218 (.17) |
| 24. San Antonio (n=8) | 1.59 (.90) | 224.59 (.53) | –0.0396 (.56) | –0.1654 (.75) | –0.1714 (.79) |
| 25. Portland (n=7) | 2.53 (.77) | 197.38 (.50) | –0.2356 (.20) | 0.2852 (.17) | 0.2157 (.23) |