Figure 1.

Schematic of methods and contact structures. Three different forms of contact structure were fitted to ASFv surveillance data (1. and 2.): (a) neighbourhood (local transmission only; local-only model), (b) distance distribution (exponential decay that includes long-distance processes; distance-only model) and (c) distance distribution with social structure (same as (b) but also allows for different transmission probabilities for within versus between family groups; distance-social model). Goodness of fit was determined for each of the three fitted models (3.). Then the fitted models were used to simulate pathogen transmission dynamics (4.) and epidemiological metrics were derived from the simulated output (5.). ζ is a fixed local neighbourhood (equation a) delimiting the contact radius, x_k,j is the distance between infectious individual k (I_k) and susceptible individual j (S_j), α is the rate at which transmission decays with distance (equations b and c), d denotes alive individuals or direct transmission, c denotes infectious carcasses or carcass-based transmission, β is the transmission rate that is specific to the transmission mechanism (d or c) and w denotes contact within the same family group whereas the absence of w denotes contact among family groups (equation c).