TABLE 2.

Summary of the Impact of VMMC on HPV and CC, With or Without Large-Scale HPV Vaccination or Screening Programs

	Scenario
	Baseline: No VMMC Scale-up, No VAX AGYW, No HPV Screen	VMMC Scale-up Only	“Substantial Control” VAX AGYW	“Substantial Control” VAX AGYW + VMMC Scale-up	“Moderate Aggressive” VAX AGYW	“Moderate Aggressive” VAX AGYW + VMMC Scale-up	HPV Screen Only	HPV Screen + VMMC Scale-up
Epidemiology, female population
Initial CC incidence: new clinically identified cases per 100,000 women in 2018	16.9	16.9	16.9	16.9	16.9	16.9	16.9	16.9
End CC incidence: new clinically identified CC cases per 100,000 women in 2067	31.2	25.3	5.7	5.2	17.9	15.0	21.8	16.7
Cumulative outcomes and intervention impacts over the 2018–2067 period (50 years)
Clinically identified CC cases (stage 1–4) (in 1000's)	602	554	339	332	472	445	546	495
Clinically identified CC cases averted (in 1000's)	N/A (ref)	48	263	270	130	157	56	107
Female deaths averted (in 1000's)	N/A (ref)	13	87	89	42	50	53	63

HPV screen, scale-up of HPV screen-and-treat; VAX AGYW, vaccination of adolescent girls and young women.