Fig. 1.

Estimation of the exponential growth rate and the doubling time of epidemics in eight European countries and the US. Red and black symbols show the daily counts of new cases and new deaths, respectively. Closed dots denote data used for parameter inference; whereas open circles denote data that are not used for parameter inference. We simulated the model using sampled parameter combinations that are able to explain the data shown in dots (see Uncertainty quantification in Section 2). The colored bands denote the area between the lower and upper bounds of simulated/predicted true daily infection incidence (blue), daily cases (red) and daily deaths (grey) assuming no intervention efforts nor changes in surveillance intensity. Deviations of open circles from the corresponding bands thus indicate either changes in surveillance intensity or impacts of control measures.