Table 3.
Sensitivity, specificity, and TPC for the clinically and data-inferred combinations of symptoms, computed on the held-out validation dataset.
| Three-day analysis | Seven-day analysis | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sensitivity (%) | Specificity (%) | TPC | Sensitivity (%) | Specificity (%) | TPC | |||||||||
| Symptom | Age group | UK | US | UK | US | UK | US | UK | US | UK | US | UK | US | |
| Clinically inferred symptoms | Respiratory symptoms1 | All | 46.4 | 48.1 | 81.9 | 76.6 | 42 | 21 | 58.1 | 64.6 | 79.1 | 72.3 | 37 | 19 |
| [18–54] | 47.1 | 45.2 | 81.6 | 76.8 | 37 | 20 | 58.5 | 64.3 | 78.5 | 71.6 | 33 | 18 | ||
| [55+] | 44.3 | 51.4 | 82.5 | 76.5 | 60 | 22 | 56.7 | 64.9 | 80.4 | 73.0 | 51 | 20 | ||
| WHO defined pneumonia2 | All | 59.8 | 74.7 | 71.7 | 59.5 | 51 | 23 | 71.4 | 84.8 | 68.4 | 54.5 | 46 | 23 | |
| [18–54] | 59.9 | 69.0 | 71.0 | 61.3 | 46 | 22 | 70.7 | 83.3 | 67.4 | 55.5 | 42 | 21 | ||
| [55+] | 59.5 | 81.1 | 73.2 | 57.8 | 68 | 24 | 73.9 | 86.5 | 70.6 | 53.6 | 59 | 25 | ||
| C-19-specific symptoms3 | All | 69.0 | 79.7 | 69.6 | 57.6 | 47 | 23 | 83.7 | 92.4 | 66.2 | 52.6 | 42 | 22 | |
| [18–54] | 69.5 | 73.8 | 68.8 | 59.5 | 42 | 22 | 84.4 | 92.9 | 65.1 | 53.8 | 37 | 20 | ||
| [55+] | 67.2 | 86.5 | 71.4 | 55.7 | 64 | 24 | 81.3 | 91.9 | 68.7 | 51.4 | 57 | 25 | ||
| Extended symptoms4 | All | 92.0 | 96.2 | 25.9 | 21.1 | 85 | 35 | 96.7 | 98.7 | 22.9 | 17.9 | 81 | 35 | |
| [18–54] | 92.6 | 95.2 | 25.0 | 22.2 | 76 | 32 | 96.6 | 100.0 | 21.7 | 18.6 | 72 | 32 | ||
| [55+] | 90.1 | 97.3 | 27.9 | 20.1 | 120 | 38 | 97.0 | 97.3 | 25.6 | 17.3 | 112 | 39 | ||
| Data-inferred subsets | Combination with highest sensitivity5 | All | 96.3 | 96.2 | 11.9 | 9.8 | 96 | 40 | 99.2 | 98.7 | 10.4 | 8.2 | 92 | 39 |
| [18–54] | 96.9 | 95.2 | 10.4 | 8.0 | 85 | 38 | 99.4 | 100 | 8.8 | 6.6 | 80 | 36 | ||
| [55+] | 94.4 | 97.2 | 15.2 | 11.6 | 141 | 42 | 98.5 | 97.3 | 13.7 | 9.8 | 134 | 90 | ||
| Combination with sensitivity ∼ 90%6 | All | 92.2 | 96.2 | 22.4 | 15.6 | 89 | 36 | 94.7 | 96.2 | 37.8 | 29.3 | 68 | 31 | |
| [18–54] | 92.7 | 95.2 | 21.5 | 19.2 | 78 | 33 | 93.2 | 100 | 37.1 | 31.3 | 59 | 27 | ||
| [55+] | 91.3 | 97.3 | 23.9 | 17.9 | 131 | 39 | 97.7 | 97.3 | 26.8 | 18.8 | 115 | 38 | ||
| Combination with specificity ∼ 50%7 | All | 76.4 | 84.8 | 40.9 | 40.0 | 72 | 30 | 87.3 | 91.1 | 49.2 | 38.9 | 59 | 29 | |
| [18–54] | 76.5 | 80.9 | 48.0 | 42.5 | 63 | 28 | 88.7 | 92.9 | 49.6 | 39.9 | 50 | 25 | ||
| [55+] | 79.3 | 89.2 | 49.0 | 37.8 | 101 | 32 | 82.3 | 89.2 | 50.7 | 37.9 | 92 | 32 | ||
TPC = Tests per case.
1
Cough, dyspnoea;.
2
Cough, dyspnoea, fever;.
3
Fever, cough, dyspnoea, and anosmia/ageusia;.
4
Fever, cough, dyspnoea, anosmia/ageusia, fatigue, and headache;.
5
Fatigue, anosmia/ageusia, persistent cough, diarrhoea, headache and sore throat;.
6
(3-day) Fatigue, anosmia/ageusia, persistent cough, dyspnoea, diarrhoea, headache, (7-day) fatigue, fever, anosmia/ageusia, persistent cough;.
7
(3-day) Fatigue, fever, anosmia/ageusia, (7-day) Anosmia/ageusia, persistent cough, dyspnoea, diarrhoea, skipped meals, myalgia.