Table A.4.
Elicited values to estimate the likelihood of pest freedom (i.e. no. of pest free fruits out of 10,000, elicited as 10,000 minus no. of infested fruits) and the fitted distributions in a three‐step approach (i.e. Import risk: Rimport = ppressure × pfield/10,000 × ppacking/10000; Pest freedom: PFimport = 10,000 Rimport)
| Percentile | Parameter | 1% | 25% | 50% | 75% | 99% | Fitted distribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elicited values for pest pressure | ppressure | 500 | 1,500 | 2,500 | 3,500 | 5,000 | BetaGeneral (1.21, 1.5169, 430, 5200) |
| Elicited values for measures in the field | pfield | 1,000 | 2,300 | 3,500 | 5,000 | 6,700 | BetaGeneral (1.0721, 1.2735, 940, 6850) |
| Elicited values for measures in the packing house | Ppacking | 100 | 900 | 1,700 | 2,800 | 4,000 | Beta general (0.95631, 1.2207, 75, 4100) |
| Resulting model values for the import risk after Monte Carlo simulation | rimport | 4.2 | 48 | 123 | 235 | 800 | Calculated with @Risk version 7.6 |
| As pest‐free fruits | 9,200 | 9,765 | 9,887 | 9,952 | 9,995.8 |