Table 1.

CORE model parameters

Parameter	Value
Number of ward beds (pre- COVID-19)	0.2 per 1,000 population
Number of ICU beds (pre- COVID-19)	350
Number of ventilators (pre- COVID-19)	450
Number of new COVID-19 cases on September 3<sup>rd</sup>, 2020	125
Cumulative number of COVID-19 cases reported until September 3<sup>rd</sup>,2020	54,588
Probability of needing admission to hospital	0.18
Probability of needing ICU-level care given admission to hospital	0.48
Probability of patients in ICU needing ventilation	0.78
Probability of patients on the ward who deteriorate and need ICU-level care	0
Length of stay, ward (no ICU admission)	17 days
Length of stay, ICU (with or without ventilation)	11 days
Length of stay, ward after a stay in ICU	6 days
Probability of death, ward patients	0
Probability of death, ICU patients (with/without ventilation)	0.35
Probability of death, patients waiting for ventilation	1.0

ICU: intensive care unit; NCDC: Nigeria centre of disease control