Table 7.

Alternative values of $\theta$, from various studies and variants.

Country/Region	GDP loss (Instantan. or monthly)	$log\frac{P\left(t^{+}\right)}{P\left(t^{-}\right)}$	Source	$\mathcal{R}\left(t\right)$	$log\frac{\mathcal{R}\left(t^{+}\right)}{\mathcal{R}\left(t^{-}\right)}$	Source	Implied $\theta$
France	−36%	−0.405	(A)	From 3 to 1	−1.099	(0)	0.369
France (2)	–	–	–	From 3 to 0.5	−1.792	(b)	0.226
France (3)	–	–	–	From 3.15 to 0.27	−2.457	(a)	0.165
Italy	−36%	−0.405	(B)	From 3.54 to 0.19	−2.925	(a)	0.139
Germany	−30%	−0.357	(B)	From 3 to 1	−1.099	(c)	0.325
Germany (2)				From 3.34 to 0.52	−1.860	(a)	0.192
Sweden	−20%	−0.223	(B)	From 3.04 to 2.02	−0.409	(a)	0.545
US (late March)	−10.0%	−0.105	(C)	From 1.50 (to 1)	−0.405	(d)	0.260
US (2) (late March)	–	–	–	From 2,20 (to 1)	−0.788	(e)	0.134
US (3) (late March)	−10%	–	–	From 2 to 1	−0.693	(f)	0.152
US (4) (May)	−31.0%	−0.371	(C)	From 3 to 1	−1.099	(0)	0.338
US (5) (May)	−34.9%	−0.430	(D)	From 3 to 1	−1.099	(0)	0.391
Our preferred benchmark	−23.3%	−0.265	–	From 2 to 0.8	−0.916	(*)	1/3

Notes: specification and sources.

(0): Priors; (*): our simulated benchmark outcome.

(a): Bryant and Elofsson (2020).

(b): Dimdore-Miles and Miles (2020).

(c): Hamouda et al. (2020).

(d): Eichenbaum et al. (2020).

(e): Riou and Althaus (2020).

(f): Jones et al. (2020).

(A) INSEE, April 2020, Point conjoncture.

(B) OECD Nowcasts, Coronavirus: The world economy in freefall, http://www.oecd.org/economy/.

(C) Fed Atlanta GDPNow tracker (8/10/2020).

(D) New York Fed Staff Nowcast https://www.forexlive.com/centralbank/!/the-ny-fed-nowcast-tracks-2q-growth-at-3122-20200508.

(E) Sweden: Forecast for 2020 are estimated to be between −6.9% and 9.7% by Statistics Sweden and the Riskbank, approx. 2/3rd of the decline in France. https://www.cnbc.com/2020/04/30/coronavirus-sweden-economy-to-contract-as-severely-as-the-rest-of-europe.html.