Table 3.

The forecast elasticity of fossil fuel consumption and GDP per capita with respect to coal price.

	Coal	Gas	Oil	GDP
EU+
average change (annual)	−2.6%	−1.9%	−0.5%	−0.8%
s.e.(autocorrelation robust)	2.0%	0.7%	0.2%	0.3%
t-ratio	−1.30	−2.88	−2.64	−2.64
p-value	0.097	0.002	0.004	0.004
Advanced
average change (annual)	−1.8%	−1.6%	−0.6%	−0.7%
s.e.(autocorrelation robust)	1.5%	0.6%	0.2%	0.3%
t-ratio	−1.20	−2.90	−2.63	−2.54
p-value	0.115	0.002	0.004	0.006
Emerging
average change (annual)	−0.3%	−0.5%	−0.3%	−0.2%
s.e.(autocorrelation robust)	0.4%	0.2%	0.1%	0.1%
t-ratio	−0.73	−2.19	−2.65	−1.79
p-value	0.234	0.014	0.004	0.037

Note: The average annual change refers to the annualised average (over 40 quarters) of the quarterly change due to a 100% increase in the relative price of coal.