Table 1.

Model Input Parameters, Values, and Sources

Parameter	Distribution Type	Meana or Median	Standard Error or Range	Source
Probabilities
Asymptomatic infection	Triangular	0.35	0.315–0.385b	CDC21
Relative infectiousness of asymptomatic infection	Point estimate	1	…	CDC21
Missing work/school	Point estimate	1.0	…	Assumption
Ambulatory care
0–4 y	Beta	0.455a	0.098	Molinari et al22
5–17 y	Beta	0.318a	0.061	Molinari et al22
18–64 y	Beta	0.313a	0.014	Molinari et al22
≥65 y	Beta	0.62a	0.027	Molinari et al22
Probability of hospitalization, given infection
0–17 years old	Beta Pert	0.031	0.028-0.034b	Stokes et al23
18–44 years old	Beta Pert	0.056	0.051-0.062b	Stokes et al23
45–64 years old	Beta Pert	0.140	0.126-0.154b	Stokes et al23
≥65 years old	Beta Pert	0.300	0.270-0.330b	Stokes et al23
Probability of ICU admission
0–17 y	Beta Pert	0.171	0.154-0.1881b	Stokes et al23
18–44 y	Beta Pert	0.152	0.137-0.1675b	Stokes et al23
45–64 y	Beta Pert	0.186	0.168-0.2047b	Stokes et al23
≥65 y	Beta Pert	0.148	0.133-0.163b	Stokes et al23
Probability of mortality
0–17 y	Beta Pert	0.022	0.019-0.024b	Stokes et al23
18–44 y	Beta Pert	0.075	0.067-0.082b	Stokes et al23
45–64 y	Beta Pert	0.208	0.187-0.228b	Stokes et al23
≥65 y	Beta Pert	0.607	0.546-0.668b	Stokes et al23
Pneumonia, given hospitalization	Beta	0.79	0.711-0.869c	Guan et al24
ARDS, requiring ventilator use in ICU	Beta	0.771a	0.053	Arentz et al25 Richardson et al26 Gold et al27 Bhatraju et al28 Auld29
Age group, given infection
0–17 y	Point estimate	0.05	…	Stokes et al23
18–44 y	Point estimate	0.39	…	Stokes et al23
45–64 y	Point estimate	0.33	…	Stokes et al23
≥65 y	Point estimate	0.23	…	Stokes et al23
Durations, d
Ambulatory care	Point estimate	0.5	…	Assumption
Duration of symptoms with mild illness	Triangular	7	3–17	Arashito et al30 Duszynski et al31 Chang et al32
Duration of symptoms prior to hospital admission	Triangular	7	3–9d	Garg et al33 Wang et al34
Hospitalization, not admitted to ICU, age group
0–49 y	Gamma	3.9a	3.7	CDC21
50–64 y	Gamma	4.9a	4.3	CDC21
≥65 y	Gamma	6.2a	5.7	CDC21
Hospitalization, ICU (all ages)	Gamma	9	4–17c	Gold et al27 Bhatraju et al28 Auld et al29 Lewnard et al35
Hospitalization, ventilator use	Gamma	9	5–12c	Gold et al27 Bhatraju et al28 Imam et al36

Note. CDC, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention; ICU, intensive care unit; ARDS, acute respiratory distress syndrome.

^a Mean.

^b Values are ±10% of median value.

^c Values are interquartile range.

^d Values are 10%–90%.