Table 1.
Forward selection process for the SAR models. Estimated coefficients and p values (p) are presented for each variable (starred p values are significant at 0.05 level), and differences in Akaike information criteria values in comparison with the best ranking model (ΔAIC), and Akaike weights (wi) are shown for each model. The first step, considering an intercept-only model, is used as null model.
| Variables | Estimate | p | ΔAIC | wi |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Step 1: detrended_residuals~1 | 14.44 | 0.00 | ||
| Intercept | 0.00 | |||
| Step 2: detrended_residuals ~ c.fnp | 8.22 | 0.02 | ||
| Intercept | − 0.04 | |||
| c.fnp | 0.01 | *<0.01 | ||
| Step 3: detrended_residuals ~ c.fnp * temp_jul | 0.00 | 0.98 | ||
| Intercept | − 0.27 | |||
| c.fnp | − 0.04 | *<0.01 | ||
| temp_jul | 0.04 | 0.68 | ||
| c.fnp:temp_jul | 0.01 | *<0.01 | ||