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. 2021 Feb 15;23:22. doi: 10.1186/s13058-021-01399-7

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© The Author(s) 2021

Open AccessThis article is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License, which permits use, sharing, adaptation, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, as long as you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons licence, and indicate if changes were made. The images or other third party material in this article are included in the article's Creative Commons licence, unless indicated otherwise in a credit line to the material. If material is not included in the article's Creative Commons licence and your intended use is not permitted by statutory regulation or exceeds the permitted use, you will need to obtain permission directly from the copyright holder. To view a copy of this licence, visit http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/. The Creative Commons Public Domain Dedication waiver (http://creativecommons.org/publicdomain/zero/1.0/) applies to the data made available in this article, unless otherwise stated in a credit line to the data.

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Fig. 2 — Calibration and discrimination of 5-year risk predictions of breast cancer for women aged 50 years or older in the nested case-control sample of the Generations Study cohort with risk categories based on deciles of predicted 5-year absolute risk. Validation results are shown for the original BOADICEA model that incorporate pedigree level family history information, its two extensions: (i) incorporating the recently developed PRS based on 313 common germline variants to the original model and (ii) incorporating the 313-variant PRS and reproductive and lifestyle factors to the original model, and the IBIS model (Version 8.0) after including the 313-variant PRS. Estimates and 95% CI of the calibration slope and intercept are reported based on a linear regression of the decile-specific observed proportion of cases within 5 years and the average of the predicted 5-year absolute risk. AUC = area under the curve, c² =chi-square goodness-of-fit test, BOADICEA = Breast and Ovarian Analysis of Disease Incidence and Carrier Estimation Algorithm, IBIS = International Breast Cancer Intervention Study, PRS = polygenic risk score, E/O = expected to observed number of cases, CI = confidence interval