Fig 1. COVID-19 dynamics before and after lockdown interventions in five example regions.

A) The city of Wuhan, China (8.5K km², 11.1M ppl), B) The Lombardy region of Italy (23.8K km², 10.1M ppl) C) The autonomous Community of Madrid in Spain (8.0K km², 6.6M ppl) D) New York City in the state of New York, USA (1.2K km², 8.2M ppl). E) The county of Los Angeles, California, USA (4.7K km², 9.8M ppl). “New cases” and “New deaths” are daily numbers of new reports, averaged over a 7 day window centered on the current day. For Lombardy, New York, and Los Angeles, “Hospitalized” and “ICU” are the total number of patients currently in regular hospital care or critical care, respectively. In Wuhan, the same time series are the number of patients currently categorized as having “severe” or “critical” infection (using the same definitions as in our model). In Madrid, due to data availability, these series are instead the daily number of new admissions (with 7-day smoothing).