Table 2.
Descriptive statistics for selected subgroups (Caucasian, Asian, Black or African American, Hispanic, Not Hospitalised) of the held-out Optum test cohort, and for the Optum future cohort.
| Held-out optum test set | Future cohort | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Black | Hispanic | Asian | Caucasian | Not hospitalised | June 6–July 13 2020 | ||
| Value | Value | Value | Value | Value | Value | ||
| Patients [#] | 3312 | 1732 | 513 | 7010 | 9366 | 14,041 | |
| COVID-19 [%] | 100.00 | 100.00 | 100.00 | 100.00 | 100.00 | 100.00 | |
| Hispanic [%] | 2.48 | 100.00 | 2.92 | 7.89 | 10.09 | 15.53 | |
| Black [%] | 100.00 | 4.73 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 20.93 | 18.97 | |
| Caucasian [%] | 0.00 | 31.93 | 0.00 | 100.00 | 51.70 | 49.47 | |
| Asian [%] | 0.00 | 0.87 | 100.00 | 0.00 | 3.75 | 2.90 | |
| Inpatient admission [%] | 36.78 | 44.69 | 31.19 | 29.60 | 0.00 | 24.44 | |
| ICU admission [%] | 9.87 | 6.87 | 5.07 | 7.02 | 0.00 | 3.64 | |
| Mortality [%] | 5.10 | 3.06 | 4.87 | 6.36 | 2.65 | 0.80 | |
| Model inputs | Female [%] | 60.27 | 51.79 | 54.00 | 53.88 | 56.54 | 54.83 |
| Age [years] | 52.00 (28.00, 76.00) | 45.00 (22.00, 70.00) | 48.00 (28.00, 74.00) | 58.00 (29.00, 84.00) | 52.00 (27.00, 79.00) | 44.00 (20.00, 73.00) | |
| Weight [kg] | 89.45 (63.50, 125.35) | 79.78 (56.76, 108.86) | 68.04 (52.64, 93.31) | 82.78 (58.21, 117.52) | 82.37 (58.61, 117.03) | 81.40 (56.70, 115.18) | |
| Height [cm] | 168.91 (157.48, 183.00) | 165.10 (152.40, 177.80) | 162.56 (152.40, 175.26) | 167.64 (154.94, 182.88) | 167.64 (154.94, 182.88) | 167.64 (153.67, 182.88) | |
| BMI [kg/m2] | 31.40 (23.00, 43.66) | 29.75 (22.88, 39.44) | 26.16 (20.74, 32.21) | 28.93 (21.81, 40.10) | 29.12 (21.95, 40.39) | 28.80 (21.52, 39.43) | |
| Intubation [%] | 5.01 | 3.23 | 5.85 | 4.15 | a1.75 | 0.49 | |
| Temperature [∘C] | 36.94 (36.50, 37.65) | 36.90 (36.45, 37.70) | 36.90 (36.50, 37.80) | 36.85 (36.40, 37.60) | 36.90 (36.40, 37.62) | 36.83 (36.40, 37.68) | |
| SpO2 [%] | 96.81 (94.00, 99.00) | 97.00 (93.75, 99.00) | 96.50 (93.06, 99.00) | 96.00 (93.04, 98.59) | 96.82 (93.45, 99.00) | 97.52 (94.61, 99.14) | |
| Heart rate [/min] | 85.86 (70.32, 103.33) | 86.14 (71.58, 106.17) | 86.22 (70.10, 103.48) | 83.00 (67.00, 101.00) | 84.00 (68.00, 103.00) | 81.82 (65.84, 101.00) | |
| Respiratory rate [/min] | 18.68 (16.00, 24.00) | 18.57 (16.00, 24.16) | 19.00 (16.00, 24.99) | 18.63 (16.00, 23.70) | 18.00 (16.00, 22.88) | 17.79 (15.27, 21.00) | |
| Dyspnoea [%] | 61.50 | 51.50 | 52.44 | 59.49 | 52.34 | 45.17 | |
| Sys. blood pressure [mmHg] | 127.87 (111.57, 150.00) | 124.18 (107.00, 145.84) | 121.32 (103.58, 143.57) | 124.67 (108.34, 145.26) | 125.16 (108.00, 146.00) | 124.60 (107.86, 146.23) | |
| Dias. blood pressure [mmHg] | 75.30 (63.36, 89.21) | 74.02 (62.00, 87.33) | 73.89 (61.02, 87.61) | 72.38 (61.00, 86.00) | 74.52 (62.00, 87.96) | 75.33 (63.00, 88.22) | |
| Kidney disease [%] | 18.39 | 7.39 | 7.99 | 14.47 | 10.39 | 7.64 | |
| Ischaemic heart disease [%] | 18.75 | 10.10 | 13.84 | 21.97 | 14.33 | 13.14 | |
| Other heart diseases [%] | 62.98 | 39.38 | 43.86 | 59.39 | 47.92 | 41.97 | |
| Cerebovascular disease [%] | 11.35 | 5.31 | 7.99 | 13.27 | 8.58 | 7.63 | |
| Hypertension [%] | 57.49 | 32.91 | 34.11 | 50.07 | 40.85 | 33.77 | |
| Diabetes [%] | 33.24 | 23.27 | 22.81 | 23.79 | 20.71 | 18.07 | |
| Hyperlipidemia [%] | 41.67 | 29.56 | 34.89 | 48.15 | 37.88 | 32.67 | |
| Cancer [%] | 23.19 | 13.39 | 12.87 | 26.73 | 20.05 | 18.55 | |
| COPD [%] | 9.09 | 4.16 | 2.73 | 11.57 | 6.74 | 5.70 | |
| Asthma [%] | 19.72 | 14.67 | 10.33 | 15.82 | 13.40 | 13.27 | |
| Pulmonary embolism [%] | 3.74 | 1.27 | 1.36 | 2.87 | 1.85 | 1.56 | |
| Connective tissue disease [%] | 3.47 | 1.96 | 1.17 | 3.17 | 2.21 | 2.17 | |
| Inflamatory bowel disease [%] | 1.00 | 0.40 | 0.58 | 2.00 | 1.33 | 1.18 | |
| Osteoarthritis [%] | 25.39 | 12.18 | 10.92 | 27.92 | 20.51 | 17.41 | |
| Rheumatroid arthritis [%] | 36.11 | 20.15 | 15.20 | 32.13 | 25.43 | 24.04 | |
| HIV [%] | 1.03 | 0.81 | 0.19 | 0.46 | 0.49 | 0.48 | |
| Smoking (never) | 46.23 | 56.12 | 53.22 | 40.30 | 38.11 | 53.28 | |
| Smoking (previous) | 15.76 | 10.22 | 8.58 | 18.13 | 12.53 | 14.91 | |
| Smoking (current) | 6.16 | 3.87 | 3.12 | 3.88 | 3.07 | 5.44 | |
| Smoking (unknown) | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | |
| White blood cells [10*3/ul] | 6.75 (3.95, 12.33) | 6.93 (4.29, 12.25) | 7.06 (4.52, 12.35) | 7.00 (4.24, 12.28) | 6.80 (4.17, 11.90) | 6.60 (4.20, 11.00) | |
| Neutrophil [%] | 71.00 (50.50, 84.74) | 70.36 (54.00, 83.62) | 73.31 (54.24, 85.30) | 71.00 (53.31, 84.05) | 69.00 (50.60, 84.33) | 63.50 (46.52, 80.50) | |
| Lymphocytes [%] | 18.05 (7.44, 37.02) | 19.09 (8.17, 34.98) | 17.00 (6.98, 35.06) | 17.67 (7.41, 34.00) | 19.45 (7.53, 36.80) | 24.80 (10.50, 40.80) | |
| Eosinophil [%] | 0.49 (0.00, 2.40) | 0.57 (0.00, 2.66) | 0.70 (0.00, 2.25) | 0.95 (0.00, 3.00) | 0.90 (0.00, 3.20) | 1.25 (0.00, 4.00) | |
| Basophil [%] | 0.30 (0.00, 1.00) | 0.25 (0.00, 0.70) | 0.18 (0.00, 0.70) | 0.30 (0.00, 1.00) | 0.31 (0.00, 1.00) | 0.42 (0.00, 1.00) | |
| Platelets [10*3/ul] | 236.00 (148.38, 369.84) | 236.00 (150.40, 368.80) | 242.33 (143.58, 348.74) | 229.00 (141.20, 352.53) | 234.33 (144.00, 362.94) | 235.42 (151.00, 343.00) | |
| C-reactive protein [mg/l] | 70.00 (11.29, 172.50) | 69.62 (5.75, 188.17) | 79.08 (21.48, 176.79) | 73.83 (9.00, 183.42) | 69.12 (6.00, 179.19) | 40.10 (2.75, 158.30) | |
| hs. C-reactive protein [mg/l] | 56.90 (9.20, 125.00) | 56.55 (3.07, 138.76) | 60.42 (3.95, 167.75) | 57.00 (4.50, 170.20) | 52.45 (3.26, 144.39) | 9.10 (0.80, 122.33) | |
| Procalcitonin [ng/ml] | 0.18 (0.04, 3.84) | 0.15 (0.04, 2.84) | 0.32 (0.04, 2.83) | 0.16 (0.04, 1.90) | 0.19 (0.04, 2.96) | 0.13 (0.04, 1.38) | |
| Fibrin D-dimer [mg/l] | 1.14 (0.32, 7.28) | 0.53 (0.18, 2.40) | 0.57 (0.25, 3.28) | 0.93 (0.29, 3.70) | 0.72 (0.24, 3.91) | 0.79 (0.31, 3.50) | |
| Ferritin [ng/ml] | 574.83 (113.85, 2446.07) | 554.47 (88.00, 1956.78) | 911.01 (152.40, 3397.40) | 540.20 (90.23, 2015.77) | 533.73 (78.25, 2046.47) | 298.20 (33.38, 1577.72) | |
| Cardiac Troponin T [ng/ml] | 0.01 (0.00, 0.13) | 0.01 (0.00, 0.09) | 0.03 (0.00, 0.49) | 0.02 (0.00, 0.19) | 0.03 (0.01, 0.20) | 0.01 (0.00, 0.09) | |
| Creatinine [mg/dl] | 1.01 (0.67, 2.90) | 0.80 (0.53, 1.85) | 0.87 (0.57, 2.02) | 0.89 (0.61, 1.88) | 0.90 (0.61, 1.88) | 0.86 (0.60, 1.44) | |
| Lactate dehydrogenase [U/l] | 347.00 (209.28, 602.25) | 325.18 (183.77, 616.27) | 394.50 (217.40, 719.21) | 312.00 (186.50, 558.85) | 328.00 (189.96, 586.03) | 282.71 (171.00, 567.93) | |
| GGT [U/l] | 40.67 (20.00, 287.43) | 69.90 (25.00, 538.32) | 73.02 (25.05, 392.52) | 43.00 (11.00, 247.54) | 58.00 (13.00, 315.43) | 30.00 (10.25, 202.75) | |
| AAT [U/l] | 34.00 (18.00, 85.45) | 36.42 (18.00, 88.82) | 44.67 (22.07, 133.48) | 31.33 (17.00, 81.94) | 30.54 (17.00, 80.41) | 24.00 (15.00, 56.30) | |
| Creatine kinase [U/l] | 171.35 (49.50, 908.83) | 105.29 (40.00, 497.77) | 133.20 (42.94, 643.30) | 100.47 (31.23, 593.24) | 127.00 (41.00, 641.50) | 110.00 (36.00, 564.10) | |
| Bilirubin [mg/dl] | 0.50 (0.28, 1.00) | 0.50 (0.30, 0.90) | 0.58 (0.30, 1.05) | 0.50 (0.30, 1.00) | 0.50 (0.30, 1.00) | 0.45 (0.20, 0.90) | |
| Albumin [g/dl] | 3.43 (2.56, 4.20) | 3.50 (2.55, 4.40) | 3.40 (2.30, 4.40) | 3.43 (2.50, 4.50) | 3.62 (2.70, 4.60) | 4.10 (2.90, 4.70) | |
| IL-6 [pg/ml] | 19.00 (6.48, 178.40) | 22.00 (6.00, 233.17) | 31.00 (7.88, 206.45) | 21.67 (7.00, 165.00) | 28.00 (7.00, 207.53) | 8.10 (4.20, 52.49) | |
| pH | 7.40 (7.29, 7.48) | 7.40 (7.27, 7.47) | 7.41 (7.25, 7.46) | 7.40 (7.28, 7.48) | 7.39 (7.26, 7.47) | 7.42 (7.31, 7.48) | |
| PCO2 [mmHg] | 40.38 (29.63, 53.60) | 41.73 (32.00, 56.99) | 42.04 (32.32, 57.66) | 41.40 (30.00, 55.91) | 40.95 (30.00, 57.89) | 37.00 (28.25, 50.64) | |
| PaO2 [mmHg] | 87.30 (61.06, 136.69) | 87.47 (60.18, 126.00) | 97.29 (66.18, 129.43) | 86.64 (59.00, 130.00) | 86.78 (60.07, 141.46) | 77.00 (53.00, 130.50) | |
| HCO3 [mmol/l] | 25.00 (19.97, 29.70) | 25.00 (20.00, 30.25) | 24.62 (18.52, 29.20) | 25.00 (20.00, 30.53) | 25.00 (20.00, 29.48) | 24.67 (19.30, 29.00) | |
| CO2 [mmol/l] | 24.20 (20.33, 28.26) | 24.42 (20.87, 28.07) | 24.00 (19.39, 27.04) | 24.59 (20.86, 28.71) | 24.50 (20.75, 28.50) | 24.13 (21.00, 28.00) | |
Input covariates of CovEWS are placed towards the bottom of the table and separated from covariates that are not inputs by a horizontal line. For binary covariates, the Value columns indicate the percentage of patients presenting with the condition at the end of their respective observation periods. For continuous measurements, the Value columns indicate the median and 10th and 90th percentiles in parentheses of the observed value for measurements that are collected once per patient, such as age, and the median of observed values for measurements that are collected multiple times per patient, such as heart rate.
BMI body mass index, HIV human immunodeficiency virus, COPD chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, GGT gamma glutamyl transferase, AAT aspartate aminotransferase, IL6 interleukin 6, n/a not available.
asee "Data Collection” for an explanation of the non-zero intubation rate.