Table 2.

Incident heart failure risk prediction models in clinical trial populations with Type 2 diabetes mellitus

Study Cohort	Demographics	HF Predictors	Internal Validation	External Validation
ACCORD Trial (WATCH-DM)	Ages: 55–79 White: 63%, Black: 19%, Hispanic: 7%, Others: 11% Follow-up: 5 years	Age, BMI, SBP, DBP, glucose, creatinine, HDL-C, QRS duration, prior MI, prior CABG	AUC: 0.72 Calibration: p = 0.23	ALLHAT Trial AUC: 0.74 Calibration: p = 0.20
SAVOR-TIMI 53	Ages: 55–75 White: 75%, Hispanic: 22% Other: 3% Follow-up: 2 years	Atrial fibrillation, CAD, GFR, UACR	AUC: 0.81 Calibration: NR	DECLARE-TIMI 58 AUC: 0.78 Calibration: p = 0.20
QResearch	Ages: 25–84 White: 83% South Asian: 9% Black: 4% Other: 4%	Age, BMI, SBP, TC/HDL-C ratio, HbA1c, material deprivation, ethnicity, smoking, duration of diabetes, atrial fibrillation, CVD, chronic kidney disease	Men – AUC: 0.764; Calibration: NR Women – AUC: 0.770; Calibration: NR	CPRD Men – AUC: 0.769; Calibration: NR Women – AUC: 0.783; Calibration: NR