Table 2:
Results of simulations that globally-coordinate OPV3 cessation on different dates, with response to positive ES samples starting from 6 months post-OPV3 cessation, considering cVDPV3 risks only, and compared to reference case (RC2) and alternative reference case (RC2alt).
| Scenario | Estimated serotype 3 VAPP cases | cVDPV3 cases | OPV3 doses not required [millions] | mOPV3 doses used for outbreak response [millions] |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| RC2 (comparator of continued bOPV use through 2029) | 586 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| OPV3 stop January 2021 | 107 | 0 | 7,331 | 0 |
| OPV3 stop May 2021 | 132 | 0 | 6,648 | 0 |
| OPV3 stop January 2024 | 268 | 0 | 4,760 | 0 |
| OPV3 stop May 2024 | 293 | 0 | 4,229 | 0 |
| RC2alt (comparator of continued bOPV/mOPV1 use through 2029)* | 586 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| OPV3 stop January 2021 | 107 | 0 | 7,318 | 0 |
| OPV3 stop May 2021 | 132 | 0 | 6,636 | 0 |
| OPV3 stop January 2024 | 268 | 0 | 4,751 | 0 |
| OPV3 stop May 2024 | 293 | 0 | 4.221 | 0 |
Notes:
RC2alt assumes the use of mOPV1 instead of bOPV for two pSIAs per year (in January and March) from 2019 on in the last remaining block of our model that sustains indigenous WPV1 transmission (representing conditions like those in WPV1 reservoir areas of Pakistan and Afghanistan)
Abbreviations: cVDPV3, serotype 3 circulating vaccine-derived poliovirus; mOPV3, serotype 3 monovalent oral poliovirus vaccine; OPV, oral poliovirus vaccine; OPV3, serotype 3 oral poliovirus vaccine; VAPP, vaccine-associated paralytic polio; VDPV, vaccine-derived poliovirus; WPV, wild poliovirus