Table 3:
Estimated probabilities of restart of OPV for serotype 3, cases and average vaccine doses used (millions) in outbreak response SIAs (oSIAs) from 100 iterations considering all post-cessation risks for globally-coordinated OPV3 cessation on different dates, with response to positive ES samples starting from 6 months post-OPV3 cessation, and compared to the reference case (RC2) for the full time horizon (top) and for a period of 5 years post the coordinated OPV3 cessation date (bottom).
| Scenario | OPV3 restarts triggered during time horizon (implemented) [%] | Ongoing transmission of OPV3-related viruses at the end of time horizon [%] | Estimated serotype 3 VAPP cases (range) | Estimated cVDPV3 cases (range) | Average mOPV3 doses for oSIAs [millions] | Average OPV3 doses not required [millions] | Average IPV doses for oSIAs [millions] |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RC2 (comparator of continued bOPV use through 2029) | 0 (0) | 100 | 589 (571–597) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 5-year period post OPV3 cessation date shown in the scenario | |||||||
| OPV3 stop January 2021 | 0 (0) | 7 | 0 (0–3) | 17 (0–1,266) | 1.3 | 4,144 | 0 |
| OPV3 stop January 2021 SA1* | 4 (0) | 81 | 8 (1–18) | 1,856 (70–10,700) | 148.0 | 3,997 | 0 |
| OPV3 stop January 2021 SA2* | 4 (0) | 26 | 1 (0–9) | 488 (0–6,450) | 22.1 | 4,123 | 0 |
| OPV3 stop May 2021 | 0 (0) | 9 | 1 (1–5) | 54 (0–2,098) | 2.1 | 3,997 | 0 |
| OPV3 stop January 2024 | 0 (0) | 5 | 0 (0–2) | 11 (0–601) | 1.1 | 3,958 | 0 |
| OPV3 stop May 2024 | 0 (0) | 9 | 1 (1–3) | 50 (0–1,875) | 1.4 | 3,968 | 0 |
| Full time horizon [2019–2029] | |||||||
| OPV3 stop January 2021 | 3 (0) | 7 | 106 (106–110) | 1,083 (0–50,889) | 1.3 | 7,330 | 13.9 |
| OPV3 stop January 2021 SA1* | 62 (4) | 81 | 120 (107–325) | 12,533 (73–67,125) | 175.0 | 7,130 | 130.1 |
| OPV3 stop January 2021 SA2* | 16 (4) | 26 | 113 (106–270) | 3,738 (0–51,419) | 53.7 | 7,252 | 0.6 |
| OPV3 stop May 2021 | 4 (0) | 9 | 132 (131–137) | 642 (0–20,6791) | 2.1 | 6,646 | 13.7 |
| OPV3 stop January 2024 | 0 (0) | 5 | 268 (267–269) | 59 (0–3,375) | 1.1 | 4,759 | 0.9 |
| OPV3 stop May 2024 | 0 (0) | 9 | 293 (292–295) | 106 (0–4,374) | 1.4 | 4,227 | 1.2 |
Notes:
SA(1,2) indicates sensitivity analyses results that assume iVDPV excreters reintroduce (1) fully-reverted VDPV viruses (stage 19) or (2) random reversion stage VDPV viruses (stage 1 to 19) for comparison to the row above
Abbreviations: cVDPV3, serotype 3 circulating vaccine-derived poliovirus; mOPV3, serotype 3 monovalent oral poliovirus vaccine; OPV, oral poliovirus vaccine; OPV3, serotype 3 oral poliovirus vaccine; SA, sensitivity analysis; VAPP, vaccine-associated paralytic polio; VDPV, vaccine-derived poliovirus; WPV, wild poliovirus