Table 2.
Description of EMF 35 JMIP scenarios
Dimension | Scenarios | Notes |
---|---|---|
Policy stringency (emissions constraint) |
26by30 + 80by50_Def 26by30 + 70by50_Def 26by30 + 90by50_Def 26by30 + 100by50_Def 16by30 + 80by50_Def 36by30 + 80by50_Def |
NDC and mid-century strategy NDC and 70% reduction by 2050 NDC and 90% reduction by 2050 NDC and 100% reduction by 2050 16% reduction by 2030 and mid-century strategy 36% reduction by 2030 and mid-century strategy |
Technology sensitivity |
26by30 + 80by50_NoCCS 26by30 + 80by50_LimNuc 26by30 + 80by50_NoNuc 26by30 + 80by50_HighInt 26by30 + 80by50_LoInt 26by30 + 80by50_LoVREcost 26by30 + 80by50_HiVREcost 26by30 + 80by50_LoVREpot 26by30 + 80by50_HiVREpot 26by30 + 80by50_LoStorageCost |
No carbon capture and storage (CCS) is available Only limited deployment of nuclear is allowed Nuclear power is not available High challenges of renewables system integration Low challenges of renewables system integration The costs of renewables are halved The costs of renewables are doubled The potentials of renewables are halved The potentials of renewables are doubled The cost of energy storage is greatly reduced |
Service demand levels |
26by30 + 80by50_LoDem 26by30 + 80by50_LoDemBld 26by30 + 80by50_LoDemTra 26by30 + 80by50_LoDemInd |
A lower GDP scenario is applied Lower GDP and demands halved for buildings Lower GDP and demands halved for transport Lower GDP and demands halved for industry |
Energy import prices | 26by30 + 80by50_HiImportCost | Energy import prices are doubled |
Only policy scenarios are shown for brevity. Note that baseline scenarios are denoted as Baseline_Def, etc. See the ESM Scenario Descriptions for more details
There are some differences in the implementation of scenarios in each model. For instance, for the LoVREcost scenario, some models implemented the VRE cost reduction from the beginning of the calculation period while others reduced the cost in a linear schedule