Table 4.
Characteristics of options to improve population immunity prior to WPV1 introduction and potential 2013 SIA strategies after the detection of the WPV1 circulation.
| Number of new infections 2013–2014 |
Cumulative cases in 2013–2014 |
Reduction in WPV1 elimination time (days) |
Additional vaccine doses administered (millions) 2005–2014 |
||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OPV | IPV | ||||
| Reference case | 7,700 | 0.8 | Reference* | Reference | Reference |
| Maintain sequential IPV/OPV schedule after 2005 | 8 | 0.001 | 340 | 4.30 | 0 |
| No response | 172,500 | 18 | - | −1.02 | 0 |
| Response 45 days after onset of the 1st paralytic case | 40,900 | 4 | −310 | 0 | 0 |
| SIA 1 month earlier | 4,200 | 0.4 | 43 | 0 | 0 |
| SIA duration of 4 days | 5,700 | 0.6 | 32 | 0 | 0 |
| SIA lasting 4 days, 1 month earlier | 2,800 | 0.3 | 73 | 0 | 0 |
| Better SIA coverage | 7,600 | 0.8 | 0 | 0.27 | 0 |
Reference case assumes 360 days with die-out occurring February 1, 2014.
Abbreviation: IPV, inactivated polio vaccine; OPV, oral polio vaccine; SIA, supplemental immunization activity; WPV1, wild poliovirus type 1.