Table 4.
Prediction of 90-day graft loss in the training and validation sets
| Scores | Training set (N = 1262) | Scores | Validation set (N = 520) | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AUC ± SE | 95% CIs | p value | AUC ± SE | 95% CIs | p value | ||
| CCI | 0.94 ± 0.01 | 0.92–0.96 | < 0.001 | CCI | 0.77 ± 0.08 | 0.62–0.93 | < 0.001 |
| D-MELD | 0.60 ± 0.02 | 0.56–0.65 | < 0.001 | BAR | 0.57 ± 0.06 | 0.45–0.68 | 0.36 |
| MELD | 0.60 ± 0.02 | 0.56–0.65 | < 0.001 | EAD | 0.57 ± 0.07 | 0.43–0.71 | 0.35 |
| BAR | 0.60 ± 0.02 | 0.55–0.64 | < 0.001 | D-MELD | 0.56 ± 0.08 | 0.41–0.70 | 0.43 |
| EAD | 0.58 ± 0.02 | 0.53–0.62 | 0.001 | MELD | 0.47 ± 0.07 | 0.33–0.61 | 0.70 |
| CCI cut-off | Sens | Spec | DOR | CCI cut-off | Sens | Spec | DOR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12.2 (25th) | 98.4 | 27.7 | 23.6 | 12.2 | 82.4 | 32.1 | 2.2 |
| 29.6 (50th) | 96.8 | 56.1 | 38.7 | 29.6 | 76.5 | 52.1 | 3.5 |
| 47.3 (75th) | 88.8 | 85.9 | 48.3 | 47.3 | 64.7 | 79.3 | 7.0 |
| 84.9 (90th) | 66.3 | 98.7 | 149.4 | 84.9 | 41.2 | 98.6 | 49.3 |
AUC area under the curve, SE standard error, CIs confidence intervals, CCI comprehensive complication index, D-MELD donor-model for end-stage liver disease, MELD model for end-stage liver disease, EAD early allograft dysfunction, BAR balance of risk, DOR diagnostic odds ratio